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Modeling And Pricing Precipitation Derivatives Under Weather Forecasts

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  • MARKUS HESS

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Mathematics Department, Actuarial Sciences, CP 210, Boulevard du Triomphe, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

We propose a pure jump precipitation model embedded in an enlarged filtration framework accounting for weather forecasts. Under different anticipative approaches, we define precipitation swap/futures prices and also introduce the notion of an “information premium”. In contrast to some other models in the literature, our forward-looking swap price representations admit time-varying stochastic dynamics. In these setups, swap price processes under the physical and risk-neutral measure turn out to be indistinguishable. We also consider an extended multi-location model measuring precipitation in several locations. In order to price options on precipitation derivatives under weather forecasts modeled by enlarged filtrations, we develop customized approximation procedures involving complex power series expansions and wavelet transform techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Hess, 2016. "Modeling And Pricing Precipitation Derivatives Under Weather Forecasts," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(07), pages 1-29, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:19:y:2016:i:07:n:s0219024916500515
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024916500515
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fred ESPEN Benth & Jurate saltyte Benth, 2007. "The volatility of temperature and pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 553-561.
    2. Ragnhild Noven & Almut Veraart & Axel Gandy, 2015. "A Lévy-driven rainfall model with applications to futures pricing," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 99(4), pages 403-432, October.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Jurate Saltyte-Benth, 2005. "Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-85.
    4. Gunther Leobacher & Philip Ngare, 2011. "On Modelling and Pricing Rainfall Derivatives with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 71-91.
    5. Andrea Barth & Fred Espen Benth & Jurgen Potthoff, 2011. "Hedging of Spatial Temperature Risk with Market-Traded Futures," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 93-117.
    6. René Carmona & Pavel Diko, 2005. "Pricing Precipitation Based Derivatives," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 959-988.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Hess, 2019. "An Arithmetic Pure-Jump Multi-Curve Interest Rate Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-30, December.
    2. Hess, Markus, 2017. "Modeling positive electricity prices with arithmetic jump-diffusions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 496-507.
    3. Markus Hess, 2020. "Pricing electricity forwards under future information on the stochastic mean-reversion level," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(2), pages 751-767, December.
    4. Markus Hess, 2018. "Pricing Temperature Derivatives Under Weather Forecasts," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(05), pages 1-34, August.
    5. Markus Hess, 2021. "A new approach to wind power futures pricing," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1235-1252, December.

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