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Pricing rainfall derivatives at the CME

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  • López Cabrera, Brenda
  • Odening, Martin
  • Ritter, Matthias

Abstract

Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring rainfall risk, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading rainfall derivatives in 2011. Compared to temperature derivatives, however, pricing rainfall derivatives is more difficult. In this article, we propose to model rainfall indices via a flexible type of distribution, namely the normal-inverse Gaussian distribution, which captures asymmetries and heavy-tail behaviour. The prices of rainfall futures are computed by employing the Esscher transform, a wellknown tool in actuarial science. This approach is flexible enough to price any rainfall contract and to adjust theoretical prices to market prices by using the calibrated market price of risk. This empirical analysis is conducted with U.S. precipitation data and CME futures data providing first results on the market price of risk for rainfall derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-005, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2013-005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nelson Christopher Dzupire & Philip Ngare & Leo Odongo, 2019. "Pricing Basket Weather Derivatives on Rainfall and Temperature Processes," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Bressan, Giacomo Maria & Romagnoli, Silvia, 2021. "Climate risks and weather derivatives: A copula-based pricing model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Evarest Emmanuel & Berntsson Fredrik & Singull Martin & Yang Xiangfeng, 2018. "Weather derivatives pricing using regime switching model," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 13-27, March.
    5. Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2021. "Weather derivatives to mitigate meteorological risks in tourism management: An empirical application to celebrations of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain)," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 591-613, June.
    6. Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2020. "Approaching rainfall-based weather derivatives pricing and operational challenges," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 163-190, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    weather derivatives; precipitation; Esscher transform; market price of risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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