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A Real Options Approach For Pricing Electricity Tolling Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • SHI-JIE DENG

    (School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 765 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA)

  • ZHENDONG XIA

    (BP Energy Company, Houston, TX, USA)

Abstract

An electricity tolling agreement (or, tolling contact) is a supply contract in which the buyer reserves the right to take the output of an underlying electricity generation asset by paying a predetermined premium to the asset owner. We propose a real options approach to value a tolling contract incorporating operational characteristics of the generation asset and contractual constraints. Dynamic programming and value function approximation by Monte Carlo based least-squares regression are employed to solve the valuation problem. The effects of different electricity price assumptions on the valuation of tolling contracts are examined through numerical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi-Jie Deng & Zhendong Xia, 2006. "A Real Options Approach For Pricing Electricity Tolling Agreements," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 421-436.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitdm:v:05:y:2006:i:03:n:s0219622006002039
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219622006002039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dabadghao, Shaunak S. & Chockalingam, Arun & Soltani, Taimaz & Fransoo, Jan, 2021. "Valuing Switching options with the moving-boundary method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    3. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    4. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    5. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    6. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    7. Magnus Perninge & Lennart Söder, 2014. "Irreversible investments with delayed reaction: an application to generation re-dispatch in power system operation," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(2), pages 195-224, April.
    8. Dong-Hyun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & In-Hyeo Jung & Douglas Alleman, 2019. "The Efficacy of the Tolling Model’s Ability to Improve Project Profitability on International Steel Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    10. Chi-Keung Woo & Ira Horowitz & Jay Zarnikau & Jack Moore & Brendan Schneiderman & Tony Ho & Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 29-57, July.
    11. Dabadghao, Shaunak S. & Chockalingam, Arun & Soltani, Taimaz & Fransoo, Jan C., 2021. "Valuing switching options with the moving-boundary method," Other publications TiSEM 45fe7e78-129f-4d41-ac2f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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