IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v82y2015icp479-500.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning

Author

Listed:
  • Muñoz, Beatriz
  • García-Verdugo, Javier
  • San-Martín, Enrique

Abstract

Energy risk and security are topical issues in energy analysis and policy. However, the quantitative analysis of energy risk presents significant methodological difficulties, especially when dealing with certain of its more qualitative dimensions. The aim of this paper is to quantitatively estimate the geopolitical risk of energy supply with the help of a multivariate statistical technique, factor analysis. Four partial energy risk factors were computed for 122 countries, which were subsequently aggregated to form the composite GESRI (Geopolitical Energy Supply Risk Index). The results demonstrate that advanced economies present a lower level of geopolitical energy risk, especially countries with energy resources, while less-developed countries register higher levels of risk regardless of their energy production. Although this indicator is computed for countries, it can be aggregated for regions or corridors, and it could also be applied to model and scenario building. The different uses of the GESRI could eventually lead to practical implications in the energy policy field, as well as in the energy planning and energy management areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Muñoz, Beatriz & García-Verdugo, Javier & San-Martín, Enrique, 2015. "Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 479-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:479-500
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.01.058
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215000821
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2015.01.058?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani, 2011. "Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5343-5355.
    2. Komendantova, Nadejda & Patt, Anthony & Barras, Lucile & Battaglini, Antonella, 2012. "Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: The case of concentrated solar power in North Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-109.
    3. Johansson, Bengt, 2013. "A broadened typology on energy and security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 199-205.
    4. Hong, Sanghyun & Bradshaw, Corey J.A. & Brook, Barry W., 2013. "Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 418-424.
    5. Jessica Jewell, 2011. "The IEA Model of Short-Term Energy Security (MOSES): Primary Energy Sources and Secondary Fuels," IEA Energy Papers 2011/17, OECD Publishing.
    6. Gnansounou, Edgard, 2008. "Assessing the energy vulnerability: Case of industrialised countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3734-3744, October.
    7. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, November.
    8. Christian Egenhofer & Kyriakos Gialoglou & Giacomo Luciani & Maroeska Boots & Martin Scheepers & Valeria Costantini & Francesco Gracceva & Anil Markandya & Giorgio Vicini, 2004. "Market-based Options for Security of Energy Supply," Working Papers 2004.117, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
    10. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Saunders, Harry, 2014. "Competing policy packages and the complexity of energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 641-651.
    11. Vivoda, Vlado, 2012. "Japan’s energy security predicament post-Fukushima," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 135-143.
    12. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    13. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, November.
    14. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    15. Hayashi, Masatsugu & Hughes, Larry, 2013. "The policy responses to the Fukushima nuclear accident and their effect on Japanese energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 86-101.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bompard, E. & Carpignano, A. & Erriquez, M. & Grosso, D. & Pession, M. & Profumo, F., 2017. "National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 144-154.
    2. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Wang, Feiran & Zhuang, Lu & Cheng, Shasha & Zhang, Yue & Cheng, Shulei, 2024. "Spatiotemporal variation and convergence analysis of China's regional energy security," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    4. Rubio-Varas, Mar & Muñoz-Delgado, Beatriz, 2017. "200 years diversifying the energy mix? Diversification paths of the energy baskets of European early comers vs. latecomers," Working Papers in Economic History 2017/01, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    5. Debin Fang & Shanshan Shi & Qian Yu, 2018. "Evaluation of Sustainable Energy Security and an Empirical Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Le Thanh Tiep & Ngo Quang Huan & Tran Thi Thuy Hong, 2020. "The Impact of Renewable Energy on Sustainable Economic Growth in Vietnam," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 359-369.
    7. Shihai Wu & Yili Zhang & Jianzhong Yan, 2022. "Comprehensive Assessment of Geopolitical Risk in the Himalayan Region Based on the Grid Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Augutis, Juozas & Krikštolaitis, Ričardas & Martišauskas, Linas & Urbonienė, Sigita & Urbonas, Rolandas & Ušpurienė, Aistė Barbora, 2020. "Analysis of energy security level in the Baltic States based on indicator approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    9. Rubio-Varas, Mar & Muñoz-Delgado, Beatriz, 2019. "Long-term diversification paths and energy transitions in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 158-168.
    10. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2021. "Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    2. Su, Meirong & Zhang, Mingqi & Lu, Weiwei & Chang, Xin & Chen, Bin & Liu, Gengyuan & Hao, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2017. "ENA-based evaluation of energy supply security: Comparison between the Chinese crude oil and natural gas supply systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 888-899.
    3. Larsen, Erik R. & Osorio, Sebastian & van Ackere, Ann, 2017. "A framework to evaluate security of supply in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 646-655.
    4. Månsson, André & Sanches-Pereira, Alessandro & Hermann, Sebastian, 2014. "Biofuels for road transport: Analysing evolving supply chains in Sweden from an energy security perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 349-357.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    6. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2016. "A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 326-343.
    7. Kamonphorn Kanchana & Hironobu Unesaki, 2015. "Assessing Energy Security Using Indicator-Based Analysis: The Case of ASEAN Member Countries," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-47, December.
    8. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    9. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2015. "Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 148-158.
    11. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Oguzhan Aslanturk & Goktug K pr zl, 2020. "The Role of Renewable Energy in Ensuring Energy Security of Supply and Reducing Energy-Related Import," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 354-359.
    13. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Pan, Yuling & Dong, Feng, 2022. "Design of energy use rights trading policy from the perspective of energy vulnerability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Ziyi Wang & Zengqiao Chen & Cuiping Ma & Ronald Wennersten & Qie Sun, 2022. "Nationwide Evaluation of Urban Energy System Resilience in China Using a Comprehensive Index Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    16. Ren, Jingzheng & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Quantifying, measuring, and strategizing energy security: Determining the most meaningful dimensions and metrics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 838-849.
    17. Kapil Narula & B. Sudhakara Reddy, 2014. "Three Blind Men and an Elephant: The Case of Energy Indices to Measure Energy Security and Sustainability," Working Papers id:5989, eSocialSciences.
    18. Martchamadol, Jutamanee & Kumar, S., 2013. "An aggregated energy security performance indicator," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 653-670.
    19. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.
    20. Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Masui, Toshihiko & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2015. "A quantitative analysis of Low Carbon Society (LCS) measures in Thai industrial sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 178-195.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:479-500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.