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Computational Modeling With Uncertainty Of Frequent Users Of E-Commerce In Spain Using An Age-Group Dynamic Nonlinear Model With Varying Size Population

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  • C. BURGOS

    (Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de València, c/Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia 46022, Spain)

  • J. C. CORTÉS

    (Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de València, c/Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia 46022, Spain)

  • D. MARTÍNEZ-RODRÍGUEZ

    (Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de València, c/Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia 46022, Spain)

  • R. J. VILLANUEVA

    (Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de València, c/Camino de Vera s/n, Valencia 46022, Spain)

Abstract

Electronic commerce (EC) has numerous advantages. It allows saving time when we purchase an item, offers the possibility of review without depending on the schedules of traditional stores, access to a wider variety and quantity of articles, in many cases, with lower prices, etc. Based upon mathematical epidemiology tenets strongly related to social behavior able to describe the influence of peers, in this paper we propose an age-group dynamic model with population varying size based on a system of difference equations to study the evolution of the frequent users of EC over time in Spain. Using data from surveys retrieved from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, we use and design computational algorithms to perform a probabilistic estimation of the model parameters that allow the model output to capture the data uncertainty. Then, we will be able to perform a precise prediction with uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Burgos & J. C. Cortés & D. Martínez-Rodríguez & R. J. Villanueva, 2019. "Computational Modeling With Uncertainty Of Frequent Users Of E-Commerce In Spain Using An Age-Group Dynamic Nonlinear Model With Varying Size Population," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:22:y:2019:i:04:n:s0219525919500097
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219525919500097
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Efraim Turban & Jon Outland & David King & Jae Kyu Lee & Ting-Peng Liang & Deborrah C. Turban, 2018. "Electronic Commerce 2018," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 9, number 978-3-319-58715-8, December.
    2. Cortés, Juan-Carlos & Santonja, Francisco-J. & Tarazona, Ana-C. & Villanueva, Rafael-J. & Villanueva-Oller, Javier, 2015. "A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 13-20.
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    1. Andreu-Vilarroig, Carlos & Cortés, Juan-Carlos & Pérez, Cristina-Luisovna & Villanueva, Rafael-Jacinto, 2023. "A random spatio-temporal model for the dynamics of Candida Auris in Intensive Care Units with regular cleaning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).

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