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Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model

Author

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  • Cortés, J.-C.
  • Colmenar, J.-M.
  • Hidalgo, J.-I.
  • Sánchez-Sánchez, A.
  • Santonja, F.-J.
  • Villanueva, R.-J.

Abstract

Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as the model parameters the ones that best fit data returned by the Differential Evolution algorithm. This technique permits to forecast model trends in the next few years using confidence intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortés, J.-C. & Colmenar, J.-M. & Hidalgo, J.-I. & Sánchez-Sánchez, A. & Santonja, F.-J. & Villanueva, R.-J., 2016. "Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 36-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:442:y:2016:i:c:p:36-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.08.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cortés, Juan-Carlos & Santonja, Francisco-J. & Tarazona, Ana-C. & Villanueva, Rafael-J. & Villanueva-Oller, Javier, 2015. "A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 13-20.
    2. Santonja, F.-J. & Morales, A. & Villanueva, R.-J. & Cortés, J.-C., 2012. "Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: A modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 34-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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