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A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study

Author

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  • Cortés, Juan-Carlos
  • Santonja, Francisco-J.
  • Tarazona, Ana-C.
  • Villanueva, Rafael-J.
  • Villanueva-Oller, Javier

Abstract

In this paper, a computational technique to deal with uncertainty in dynamic continuous models in Social Sciences is presented. Considering data from surveys, the method consists of determining the probability distribution of the survey output and this allows to sample data and fit the model to the sampled data using a goodness-of-fit criterion based on the χ2-test. Taking the fitted parameters that were not rejected by the χ2-test, substituting them into the model and computing their outputs, 95% confidence intervals in each time instant capturing the uncertainty of the survey data (probabilistic estimation) is built. Using the same set of obtained model parameters, a prediction over the next few years with 95% confidence intervals (probabilistic prediction) is also provided. This technique is applied to a dynamic social model describing the evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards the revolutionary organisation ETA.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortés, Juan-Carlos & Santonja, Francisco-J. & Tarazona, Ana-C. & Villanueva, Rafael-J. & Villanueva-Oller, Javier, 2015. "A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: The evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 13-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:264:y:2015:i:c:p:13-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2015.03.128
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    Cited by:

    1. Acedo, L. & Burgos, C. & Cortés, J.-C. & Villanueva, R.-J., 2017. "Probabilistic prediction of outbreaks of meningococcus W-135 infections over the next few years in Spain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 106-117.
    2. Zhao, Yongshun & Li, Xiaodi & Cao, Jinde, 2020. "Global exponential stability for impulsive systems with infinite distributed delay based on flexible impulse frequency," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    3. Clara Burgos & Juan-Carlos Cortés & Iván-Camilo Lombana & David Martínez-Rodríguez & Rafael-J. Villanueva, 2019. "Modeling the Dynamics of the Frequent Users of Electronic Commerce in Spain Using Optimization Techniques for Inverse Problems with Uncertainty," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 182(2), pages 785-796, August.
    4. C. Burgos & J. C. Cortés & D. Martínez-Rodríguez & R. J. Villanueva, 2019. "Computational Modeling With Uncertainty Of Frequent Users Of E-Commerce In Spain Using An Age-Group Dynamic Nonlinear Model With Varying Size Population," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Cortés, J.-C. & Colmenar, J.-M. & Hidalgo, J.-I. & Sánchez-Sánchez, A. & Santonja, F.-J. & Villanueva, R.-J., 2016. "Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 36-49.

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