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Dynamics In An Sir Model When Vaccination Demand Follows Prior Levels Of Disease Prevalence

Author

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  • JOHN C. ECKALBAR

    (Department of Economics, California State University, 1st and Normal Chico, CA 95926-0430, United States)

  • PETE TSOURNOS

    (Department of Economics, California State University, 1st and Normal Chico, CA 95926-0430, United States)

  • WALTER L. ECKALBAR

    (#x2020;Department of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, 1550, 4th Street, Bldg 19B, San Francisco CA 94158, United States)

Abstract

This paper investigates an susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR) model with childhood vaccination demand modeled as a function of prior levels of disease prevalence. Stability conditions for endemic and disease-free equilibria are uncovered, and both Hopf bifurcations and chaos are found with certain constellations of parameter values. Policy interventions directed toward increasing vaccination are explored, and the implied magnitudes of the external benefit of vaccination are modeled.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Eckalbar & Pete Tsournos & Walter L. Eckalbar, 2015. "Dynamics In An Sir Model When Vaccination Demand Follows Prior Levels Of Disease Prevalence," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(07n08), pages 1-27, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:18:y:2015:i:07n08:n:s0219525915500216
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219525915500216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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