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Certainty of Punishment versus Severity of Punishment: An Experimental Investigation

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  • Lana Friesen

Abstract

Compliance with laws and regulations depends on the expected penalty facing violators. The expected penalty depends on both the probability of punishment and the severity of the punishment if caught. A key question in the economics of crime literature is whether increasing the probability of punishment is a more effective deterrent than increasing the severity of punishment. This article uses laboratory experiments to investigate this issue and finds that increasing the severity of punishment is a more effective deterrent than an equivalent increase in the probability of punishment. This result contrasts with the findings of the empirical crime literature.

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  • Lana Friesen, 2012. "Certainty of Punishment versus Severity of Punishment: An Experimental Investigation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(2), pages 399-421, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:79:y:2012:i:2:p:399-421
    DOI: 10.4284/0038-4038-2011.152
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    2. Espinosa, Romain & DeAngelo, Gregory & Deffains, Bruno & Mungan, Murat & Romaniuc, Rustam, 2021. "The price of expungements," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Marina Agranov & Anastasia Buyalskaya, 2022. "Deterrence Effects of Enforcement Schemes: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3573-3589, May.
    4. Bahník, Štěpán & Vranka, Marek, 2023. "How does probabilistic harm affect dishonesty? An experiment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    5. Cameron, Lisa & Meng, Xin & Zhang, Dandan, 2022. "Does being “left–behind” in childhood lead to criminality in adulthood? Evidence from data on rural-urban migrants and prison inmates in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 675-693.
    6. Menegatti, Mario, 2023. "Variability in punishment, risk preferences and crime deterrence," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Roee Sarel, 2022. "Crime and punishment in times of pandemics," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 155-186, October.
    8. Camilo Acosta M. & Daniel Mejía & Angela Zorro M., 2016. "Certainty vs. Severity Revisited: Evidence for Colombia," Documentos CEDE 14634, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Bahník, Štěpán & Vranka, Marek A., 2022. "Experimental test of the effects of punishment probability and size on the decision to take a bribe," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Menusch Khadjavi, 2015. "On the Interaction of Deterrence and Emotions," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 287-319.
    11. Lana Friesen & Dietrich Earnhart, 2012. "Environmental Management Responses to Punishment: Specific Deterrence and Certainty versus Severity of Punishment," Discussion Papers Series 463, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Hernández, Wilson, 2019. "Do criminal justice reforms reduce crime and perceived risk of crime? A quasi-experimental approach in Peru," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 89-100.
    13. Thomas Giel & Sören Dallmeyer & Daniel Memmert & Christoph Breuer, 2023. "Corruption and Self-Sabotage in Sporting Competitions – An Experimental Approach to Match-Fixing Behavior and the Influence of Deterrence Factors," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(4), pages 497-525, May.

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