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Probabilistic model of degradation of cable insulations in nuclear power plants

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  • Yuan-Shang Chang
  • Ali Mosleh

Abstract

Possible degradation of cable insulations exposed to radiation and heat is a safety and operational concern for nuclear power plants, particularly in the context of a license extension for the operation beyond original 40-year design life. Ethylene propylene rubber and silicone rubber are two major materials for the cable insulation. Degradation decreases the elongation at break of the insulation, which may lead to the exposure of the metal core in the cable, causing potential safety issues. This article proposes a mechanistic predictive model for the elongation at break as a function of time, temperature, and radiation dose rate. In the proposed model, the elongation at break curve is divided into an incubation section and a drop-off section with two parameters. In contrast to traditional deterministic approaches, this model projects the expected lifespan of cable insulation in the form of a probability distribution. The article also provides a validation of the model behavior using published experimental data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan-Shang Chang & Ali Mosleh, 2019. "Probabilistic model of degradation of cable insulations in nuclear power plants," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(5), pages 803-814, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:233:y:2019:i:5:p:803-814
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X19827127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Enrique López Droguett & Ali Mosleh, 2008. "Bayesian Methodology for Model Uncertainty Using Model Performance Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1457-1476, October.
    2. Ali Mosleh & George Apostolakis, 1986. "The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), pages 447-461, December.
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