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Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example

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  • M. Granger Morgan
  • Samuel C. Morris
  • Max Henrion
  • Deborah A. L. Amaral
  • William R. Rish

Abstract

Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal‐fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Granger Morgan & Samuel C. Morris & Max Henrion & Deborah A. L. Amaral & William R. Rish, 1984. "Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 201-216, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:4:y:1984:i:3:p:201-216
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1984.tb00139.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ralph L. Keeney, 1982. "Feature Article—Decision Analysis: An Overview," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 803-838, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Neal Fann & Elisabeth A. Gilmore & Katherine Walker, 2016. "Characterizing the Long‐Term PM2.5 Concentration‐Response Function: Comparing the Strengths and Weaknesses of Research Synthesis Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(9), pages 1693-1707, September.
    2. M. Granger Morgan, 2015. "Our Knowledge of the World is Often Not Simple: Policymakers Should Not Duck that Fact, But Should Deal with It," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 19-20, January.
    3. Henry A. Roman & James K. Hammitt & Tyra L. Walsh & David M. Stieb, 2012. "Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2133-2151, December.
    4. Elizabeth A. Casman & Minh Ha‐Duong & M. Granger Morgan, 2004. "Response to Sander Greenland's Critique of Bounding Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 1093-1095, October.
    5. James K. Hammitt, 1990. "Subjective‐Probability‐Based Scenarios for Uncertain Input Parameters: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 93-102, March.
    6. S.Y. Jimmy Chan, 1993. "An Alternative Approach to the Modeling of Probability Distributions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 97-102, February.
    7. Vincent T. Covello, 1987. "Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 131-139, June.

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