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Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context

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  • Hammitt, James K.
  • Roman, Henry A.
  • Stieb, David M.
  • Walsh, Tyra L.

Abstract

The monetized value of avoided premature mortality typically dominates the calculated benefits of air pollution regulations; therefore, characterization of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates is key to good policymaking. Formal expert judgment elicitation methods are one means of characterizing this uncertainty. They have been applied to characterize uncertainty in the mortality concentration-response function, but have yet to be used to characterize uncertainty in the economic values placed on avoided mortality. We report the findings of a pilot expert judgment study for Health Canada designed to elicit quantitative probabilistic judgments of uncertainties in Value-per-Statistical-Life (VSL) estimates for use in an air pollution context. The two-stage elicitation addressed uncertainties in both a base case VSL for a reduction in mortality risk from traumatic accidents and in benefits transferrelated adjustments to the base case for an air quality application (e.g., adjustments for age, income, and health status). Results for each expert were integrated to develop example quantitative probabilistic uncertainty distributions for VSL that could be incorporated into air quality models.

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  • Hammitt, James K. & Roman, Henry A. & Stieb, David M. & Walsh, Tyra L., 2012. "Expert Elicitation of the Value per Statistical Life in an Air Pollution Context," TSE Working Papers 12-290, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25757
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    2. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Bazouin, Guillaume & Dvorak, Michael J. & Arghandeh, Reza & Bauer, Zack A.F. & Cotte, Ariane & de Moor, Gerrit M.T.H. & Goldner, Elissa G. & Heier, Casey & Holm, 2016. "A 100% wind, water, sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy plan for Washington State," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 75-88.
    3. Anna Alberini & Milan Ščasný, 2021. "On the validity of the estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 55-87, February.
    4. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Ingraffea, Anthony R. & Howarth, Robert W. & Bazouin, Guillaume & Bridgeland, Brett & Burkart, Karl & Chang, Martin & Chowdhury, Navid & Cook, Roy & Escher, Giu, 2014. "A roadmap for repowering California for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 875-889.
    5. Vincent,Jeffrey R. & Carson,Richard T. & Navrud,Stale & Ortiz Bobea,Ariel & Strand,Jon & Vincent,Jeffrey R. & Carson,Richard T. & Navrud,Stale & Ortiz Bobea,Ariel & Strand,Jon, 2014. "A"Delphi exercise"as a tool in Amazon rainforest valuation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7143, The World Bank.
    6. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Howarth, Robert W. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Scobie, Stan R. & Barth, Jannette M. & Dvorak, Michael J. & Klevze, Megan & Katkhuda, Hind & Miranda, Brian & Chowdhury, Navid A. & Jones, , 2013. "Examining the feasibility of converting New York State’s all-purpose energy infrastructure to one using wind, water, and sunlight," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 585-601.
    7. Strand, Jon & Carson, Richard T. & Navrud, Stale & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Vincent, Jeffrey R., 2017. "Using the Delphi method to value protection of the Amazon rainforest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 475-484.
    8. Gregory F. Nemet & Laura Diaz Anadon & Elena Verdolini, 2017. "Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 315-330, February.
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    Value per statistical life; air pollution; expert judgment; uncertainty analysis;
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