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Using Value-Focused Thinking and Multicriteria Decision Making to Evaluate Energy Transition Alternatives

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  • Tim H¨ofer

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), E.ON Energy Research Center, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany; Institute for Decision Research and Financial Services, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany)

  • Rüdiger von Nitzsch

    (School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany)

  • Reinhard Madlener

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), E.ON Energy Research Center, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany; Institute for Decision Research and Financial Services, School of Business and Economics, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, Germany; Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

The future transformation of the energy system is a contentious topic, involving a variety of conflicting opinions and interests. In order to structure and evaluate these opinions, we develop a decision-making process with professional stakeholders and energy experts. The aim of this process is to develop a common objective system for the energy transition and to evaluate four possible energy transition alternatives for Germany until 2030. We apply value-focused thinking to define and structure the objectives of the stakeholders and use multiattribute utility theory to evaluate the preferences of the stakeholders toward these objectives. The results show that 8 out of 11 stakeholders prefer the energy transition alternative with the highest climate protection ambitions. Only 3 stakeholders favor the pan-European alternative, where Germany’s power system is further integrated into the European energy system.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim H¨ofer & Rüdiger von Nitzsch & Reinhard Madlener, 2020. "Using Value-Focused Thinking and Multicriteria Decision Making to Evaluate Energy Transition Alternatives," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 330-355, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:17:y:4:i:2020:p:330-355
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.2020.0416
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