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Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks

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  • Xiao, Xiao
  • Seekamp, Erin
  • van der Burg, Max Post
  • Eaton, Mitchell
  • Fatorić, Sandra
  • McCreary, Allie

Abstract

Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration, and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Xiao & Seekamp, Erin & van der Burg, Max Post & Eaton, Mitchell & Fatorić, Sandra & McCreary, Allie, 2019. "Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 379-389.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:83:y:2019:i:c:p:379-389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.02.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fatorić, Sandra & Seekamp, Erin, 2017. "Evaluating a decision analytic approach to climate change adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic Coast of the United States," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 254-263.
    2. Bethune Carmichael & Greg Wilson & Ivan Namarnyilk & Sean Nadji & Sally Brockwell & Bob Webb & Fred Hunter & Deanne Bird, 2018. "Local and Indigenous management of climate change risks to archaeological sites," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 231-255, February.
    3. Ronald A. Howard, 1988. "Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 679-695, June.
    4. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha, 2017. "Nested Optimization Approach for the Capacity Expansion of Multiquality Water Supply Systems under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1381-1395, March.
    5. W. Neil Adger & Jon Barnett & Katrina Brown & Nadine Marshall & Karen O'Brien, 2013. "Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 112-117, February.
    6. Ralph L. Keeney, 1982. "Feature Article—Decision Analysis: An Overview," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 803-838, October.
    7. Sandra Fatorić & Erin Seekamp, 2017. "Are cultural heritage and resources threatened by climate change? A systematic literature review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 227-254, May.
    8. Williams, Byron K. & Eaton, Mitchell J. & Breininger, David R., 2011. "Adaptive resource management and the value of information," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3429-3436.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth E. Perry & Jennifer M. Thomsen & Ashley L. D’Antonio & Wayde C. Morse & Nathan P. Reigner & Yu-Fai Leung & Jeremy Wimpey & B. Derrick Taff, 2020. "Toward an Integrated Model of Topical, Spatial, and Temporal Scales of Research Inquiry in Park Visitor Use Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Erin Seekamp & Eugene Jo, 2020. "Resilience and transformation of heritage sites to accommodate for loss and learning in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 41-55, September.
    3. Sandra Fatorić & Robbert Biesbroek, 2020. "Adapting cultural heritage to climate change impacts in the Netherlands: barriers, interdependencies, and strategies for overcoming them," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 301-320, September.

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