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A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom

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  • Edward J. Oughton
  • Mike Hapgood
  • Gemma S. Richardson
  • Ciarán D. Beggan
  • Alan W. P. Thomson
  • Mark Gibbs
  • Catherine Burnett
  • C. Trevor Gaunt
  • Markos Trichas
  • Rabia Dada
  • Richard B. Horne

Abstract

Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high‐voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three‐part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington‐sized 1‐in‐100‐year event to £0.9 billion.

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  • Edward J. Oughton & Mike Hapgood & Gemma S. Richardson & Ciarán D. Beggan & Alan W. P. Thomson & Mark Gibbs & Catherine Burnett & C. Trevor Gaunt & Markos Trichas & Rabia Dada & Richard B. Horne, 2019. "A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 1022-1043, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:39:y:2019:i:5:p:1022-1043
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.13229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. P. Eastwood & E. Biffis & M. A. Hapgood & L. Green & M. M. Bisi & R. D. Bentley & R. Wicks & L.‐A. McKinnell & M. Gibbs & C. Burnett, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 206-218, February.
    2. D. Warner North, 2017. "Space Weather: Introducing a Survey Paper and a Recent Executive Order," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 204-205, February.
    3. Thomas J. Teisberg & Rodney F. Weiher & Eugene Bardach, 2000. "Valuation of geomagnetic storm forecasts: An estimate of the net economic benefits of a satellite warning system," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 329-334.
    4. Seth Jonas & Kassandra Fronczyk & Lucas M. Pratt, 2018. "A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1534-1540, August.
    5. Christian Möstl & Tanja Rollett & Rudy A. Frahm & Ying D. Liu & David M. Long & Robin C. Colaninno & Martin A. Reiss & Manuela Temmer & Charles J. Farrugia & Arik Posner & Mateja Dumbović & Miho Janvi, 2015. "Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, November.
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    2. Michael Greenberg & Anthony Cox & Vicki Bier & Jim Lambert & Karen Lowrie & Warner North & Michael Siegrist & Felicia Wu, 2020. "Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2113-2127, November.
    3. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 393-416, July.
    4. Broome, James David & Cook, David & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur, 2024. "Heavenly lights: An exploratory review of auroral ecosystem services and disservices," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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