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A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability

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  • Seth Jonas
  • Kassandra Fronczyk
  • Lucas M. Pratt

Abstract

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth Jonas & Kassandra Fronczyk & Lucas M. Pratt, 2018. "A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1534-1540, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:8:p:1534-1540
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12981
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    1. Edward J. Oughton & Mike Hapgood & Gemma S. Richardson & Ciarán D. Beggan & Alan W. P. Thomson & Mark Gibbs & Catherine Burnett & C. Trevor Gaunt & Markos Trichas & Rabia Dada & Richard B. Horne, 2019. "A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 1022-1043, May.
    2. Michael Greenberg & Anthony Cox & Vicki Bier & Jim Lambert & Karen Lowrie & Warner North & Michael Siegrist & Felicia Wu, 2020. "Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2113-2127, November.
    3. Broome, James David & Cook, David & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur, 2024. "Heavenly lights: An exploratory review of auroral ecosystem services and disservices," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Kathrin Kirchen & William Harbert & Jay Apt & M. Granger Morgan, 2020. "A Solar‐Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1020-1039, May.

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