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A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study

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  • Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri
  • Abrar Ahmad Chughtai
  • C. Raina MacIntyre

Abstract

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response.

Suggested Citation

  • Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri & Abrar Ahmad Chughtai & C. Raina MacIntyre, 2018. "A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 429-441, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:3:p:429-441
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12876
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    1. Georgios K Nikolopoulos & Anastasios Fotiou & Eleftheria Kanavou & Clive Richardson & Marios Detsis & Anastasia Pharris & Jonathan E Suk & Jan C Semenza & Claudia Costa-Storti & Dimitrios Paraskevis &, 2015. "National Income Inequality and Declining GDP Growth Rates Are Associated with Increases in HIV Diagnoses among People Who Inject Drugs in Europe: A Panel Data Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch, 2006. "Evaluation of Response Scenarios to Potential Polio Outbreaks Using Mathematical Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(6), pages 1541-1556, December.
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    1. Mudassar Arsalan & Omar Mubin & Fady Alnajjar & Belal Alsinglawi, 2020. "COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-10, August.
    2. Xin Chen & Abrar A. Chughtai & Chandini R. MacIntyre, 2020. "Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 915-925, May.

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