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Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions

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  • Majeed Abimbola
  • Faisal Khan

Abstract

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real‐time risk analysis. The real‐time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom‐hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout.

Suggested Citation

  • Majeed Abimbola & Faisal Khan, 2018. "Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 255-271, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:2:p:255-271
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aven, Terje, 2010. "On how to define, understand and describe risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 623-631.
    2. Cohen, Mark A. & Gottlieb, Madeline & Linn, Joshua & Richardson, Nathan, 2011. "Deepwater Drilling: Law, Policy, and Economics of Firm Organization and Safety," RFF Working Paper Series dp-10-65, Resources for the Future.
    3. Skogdalen, Jon Espen & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2012. "Combining precursor incidents investigations and QRA in oil and gas industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 48-58.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wen Li & Yicheng Ye & Nanyan Hu & Xianhua Wang & Qihu Wang, 2019. "Real-Time Warning and Risk Assessment of Tailings Dam Disaster Status Based on Dynamic Hierarchy-Grey Relation Analysis," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, April.

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