IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v35y2015i5p919-930.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of the Hyper‐Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • S. Hadi Khazraee
  • Antonio Jose Sáez‐Castillo
  • Srinivas Reddy Geedipally
  • Dominique Lord

Abstract

The hyper‐Poisson distribution can handle both over‐ and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation‐specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper‐Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper‐Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway‐highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness‐of‐fit measures indicated that the hyper‐Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper‐Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper‐Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper‐Poisson model can handle both over‐ and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Hadi Khazraee & Antonio Jose Sáez‐Castillo & Srinivas Reddy Geedipally & Dominique Lord, 2015. "Application of the Hyper‐Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 919-930, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:5:p:919-930
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12296
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12296?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seth D. Guikema & Jeremy P. Goffelt, 2008. "A Flexible Count Data Regression Model for Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 213-223, February.
    2. Galit Shmueli & Thomas P. Minka & Joseph B. Kadane & Sharad Borle & Peter Boatwright, 2005. "A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(1), pages 127-142, January.
    3. Dominique Lord & Srinivas Reddy Geedipally & Seth D. Guikema, 2010. "Extension of the Application of Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1268-1276, August.
    4. Royce A. Francis & Srinivas Reddy Geedipally & Seth D. Guikema & Soma Sekhar Dhavala & Dominique Lord & Sarah LaRocca, 2012. "Characterizing the Performance of the Conway‐Maxwell Poisson Generalized Linear Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 167-183, January.
    5. Cameron, A Colin & Johansson, Per, 1997. "Count Data Regression Using Series Expansions: With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 203-223, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Darcy Steeg Morris & Kimberly F. Sellers, 2022. "A Flexible Mixed Model for Clustered Count Data," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Royce A. Francis & Srinivas Reddy Geedipally & Seth D. Guikema & Soma Sekhar Dhavala & Dominique Lord & Sarah LaRocca, 2012. "Characterizing the Performance of the Conway‐Maxwell Poisson Generalized Linear Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 167-183, January.
    3. Subrata Chakraborty & S. H. Ong, 2017. "Mittag - Leffler function distribution - a new generalization of hyper-Poisson distribution," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Zhou, Can & Jiao, Yan & Browder, Joan, 2019. "K-aggregated transformation of discrete distributions improves modeling count data with excess ones," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Dominique Lord & Srinivas Reddy Geedipally & Seth D. Guikema, 2010. "Extension of the Application of Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1268-1276, August.
    6. Kimberly F. Sellers & Tong Li & Yixuan Wu & Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan, 2021. "A Flexible Multivariate Distribution for Correlated Count Data," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Somayeh Ghorbani Gholiabad & Abbas Moghimbeigi & Javad Faradmal, 2021. "Three-level zero-inflated Conway–Maxwell–Poisson regression model for analyzing dispersed clustered count data with extra zeros," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 83(2), pages 415-439, November.
    8. Sáez-Castillo, A.J. & Conde-Sánchez, A., 2013. "A hyper-Poisson regression model for overdispersed and underdispersed count data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 148-157.
    9. Meena Badade & T. V. Ramanathan, 2022. "Probabilistic Frontier Regression Models for Count Type Output Data," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 235-260, September.
    10. Xun-Jian Li & Guo-Liang Tian & Mingqian Zhang & George To Sum Ho & Shuang Li, 2023. "Modeling Under-Dispersed Count Data by the Generalized Poisson Distribution via Two New MM Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-24, March.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:42:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gauss Cordeiro & Josemar Rodrigues & Mário Castro, 2012. "The exponential COM-Poisson distribution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 653-664, August.
    13. Mevin B. Hooten & Michael R. Schwob & Devin S. Johnson & Jacob S. Ivan, 2023. "Multistage hierarchical capture–recapture models," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), September.
    14. Can Zhou & Yan Jiao & Joan Browder, 2019. "How much do we know about seabird bycatch in pelagic longline fisheries? A simulation study on the potential bias caused by the usually unobserved portion of seabird bycatch," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, August.
    15. van der Klaauw, Bas & Koning, Ruud H, 2003. "Testing the Normality Assumption in the Sample Selection Model with an Application to Travel Demand," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 31-42, January.
    16. Joseph B. Kadane & Ramayya Krishnan & Galit Shmueli, 2006. "A Data Disclosure Policy for Count Data Based on the COM-Poisson Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(10), pages 1610-1617, October.
    17. Stefano Mainardi, 2003. "Testing convergence in life expectancies: count regression models on panel data," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 350-370.
    18. Jinxian Weng & Qiang Meng & David Z. W. Wang, 2013. "Tree‐Based Logistic Regression Approach for Work Zone Casualty Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 493-504, March.
    19. Sunecher Yuvraj & Mamode Khan Naushad & Jowaheer Vandna, 2019. "Modelling with Dispersed Bivariate Moving Average Processes," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, January.
    20. A. Colin Cameron & Per Johansson, 2004. "Bivariate Count Data Regression Using Series Expansions: With Applications," Working Papers 9815, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    21. Imelda Trejo & Nicolas W Hengartner, 2022. "A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-23, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:5:p:919-930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.