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Tree‐Based Logistic Regression Approach for Work Zone Casualty Risk Assessment

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  • Jinxian Weng
  • Qiang Meng
  • David Z. W. Wang

Abstract

This study presents a tree‐based logistic regression approach to assessing work zone casualty risk, which is defined as the probability of a vehicle occupant being killed or injured in a work zone crash. First, a decision tree approach is employed to determine the tree structure and interacting factors. Based on the Michigan M‐94\I‐94\I‐94BL\I‐94BR highway work zone crash data, an optimal tree comprising four leaf nodes is first determined and the interacting factors are found to be airbag, occupant identity (i.e., driver, passenger), and gender. The data are then split into four groups according to the tree structure. Finally, the logistic regression analysis is separately conducted for each group. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms the pure decision tree model because the former has the capability of examining the marginal effects of risk factors. Compared with the pure logistic regression method, the proposed approach avoids the variable interaction effects so that it significantly improves the prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinxian Weng & Qiang Meng & David Z. W. Wang, 2013. "Tree‐Based Logistic Regression Approach for Work Zone Casualty Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 493-504, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:3:p:493-504
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01879.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dominique Lord & Srinivas Reddy Geedipally & Seth D. Guikema, 2010. "Extension of the Application of Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1268-1276, August.
    2. Sandy Helene Straus & Xiaojun Gu, 2009. "The Roads Ahead: Collision Risks, Trends, and Safety of Drivers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 900-911, June.
    3. Paola Berchialla & Silvia Snidero & Alexandru Stancu & Cecilia Scarinzi & Roberto Corradetti & Dario Gregori & the ESFBI Study Group, 2007. "Predicting Severity of Foreign Body Injuries in Children in Upper Airways: An Approach Based on Regression Trees," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1255-1263, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Song Fang & Jianxiao Ma, 2021. "Influence Range and Traffic Risk Analysis of Moving Work Zones on Urban Roads," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Zhao, Wenjing & Ma, Zhuanglin & Yang, Kui & Huang, Helai & Monsuur, Fredrik & Lee, Jaeyoung, 2020. "Impacts of variable message signs on en-route route choice behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 335-349.

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