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A Methodology for Modeling Regional Terrorism Risk

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  • Samrat Chatterjee
  • Mark D. Abkowitz

Abstract

Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well‐being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all‐hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man‐made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event‐based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Samrat Chatterjee & Mark D. Abkowitz, 2011. "A Methodology for Modeling Regional Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(7), pages 1133-1140, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:7:p:1133-1140
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01565.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henry H. Willis, 2007. "Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 597-606, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rongchen Zhu & Xiaofeng Hu & Xin Li & Han Ye & Nan Jia, 2020. "Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Mark Abkowitz & Janey Camp, 2017. "Structuring an Enterprise Risk Assessment Protocol: Traditional Practice and New Methods," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 79-97, March.

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