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Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications

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  • Robin L. Dillon
  • Robert M. Liebe
  • Thomas Bestafka

Abstract

This article describes the anti‐terrorism risk‐based decision aid (ARDA), a risk‐based decision‐making approach for prioritizing anti‐terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti‐terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war‐fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin L. Dillon & Robert M. Liebe & Thomas Bestafka, 2009. "Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 321-335, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:3:p:321-335
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01196.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vicki M. Bier & Naraphorn Haphuriwat & Jaime Menoyo & Rae Zimmerman & Alison M. Culpen, 2008. "Optimal Resource Allocation for Defense of Targets Based on Differing Measures of Attractiveness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 763-770, June.
    2. Vicki M. Bier, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 607-620, June.
    3. B. John Garrick, 2002. "Perspectives on the Use of Risk Assessment to Address Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 421-423, June.
    4. Henry H. Willis, 2007. "Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 597-606, June.
    5. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell & Robin L. Dillon, 2006. "The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 220-232, December.
    6. Vicki M. Bier & Detlof Von Winterfeldt, 2007. "Meeting the Challenges of Terrorism Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 503-504, June.
    7. Bilal M. Ayyub & William L. McGill & Mark Kaminskiy, 2007. "Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All‐Hazards Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 789-801, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nunes-Vaz, Rick & Lord, Steven, 2014. "Designing physical security for complex infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 178-192.
    2. Stewart, Mark G., 2010. "Risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism protective measures for infrastructure," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 29-40.

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