IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i10p1680-d230905.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macro Risk: A Versatile and Universal Strategy for Measuring the Overall Safety of Hazardous Industrial Installations in China

Author

Listed:
  • Guantao Wang

    (School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jingjing Pei

    (School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

In this work, macro risk is used to describe the overall safety of a group of hazards that are congeneric in a certain area, which can effectively help safety supervisors with goal setting and decision-making in China. To demonstrate this, the article proposes a calculation method to quantitatively study the macro risk of hazardous industrial installations. The method simultaneously considers the probability and consequences of accidents as the two core elements of risk, and the consequences cover losses with various dimensions. Assisted by related probability theory and binomial distribution, we analyzed historical accident statistics in detail to reveal hidden laws. To explore how to normalize the dimension of varied losses, the number of person-years was introduced as a loss equivalent to set up a method of conversion between loss of life and economic loss. The calculation method, which manifests a versatile and universal strategy of macro risk, was thus established. The value of the macro risk obtained possesses chronergy. Based on chronergy, two applications in China are further discussed, indicating this method is indeed feasible and practical for safety supervision. Specifically, it can help reasonably allocate regulatory resources by comparing macro risks of the same types of installations in various jurisdictions. In addition, it is conducive to a scientific determination of regulatory direction through the comparison of macro risks of various types of installations in the same jurisdiction.

Suggested Citation

  • Guantao Wang & Jingjing Pei, 2019. "Macro Risk: A Versatile and Universal Strategy for Measuring the Overall Safety of Hazardous Industrial Installations in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-13, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:10:p:1680-:d:230905
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/10/1680/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/10/1680/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georges Dionne, 2013. "Risk Management: History, Definition, and Critique," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(2), pages 147-166, September.
    2. Horm, J.W. & Sondik, E.J., 1989. "Person-years of life lost due to cancer in the United States, 1970 and 1984," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 79(11), pages 1490-1493.
    3. G. Grünthal & A. Thieken & J. Schwarz & K. Radtke & A. Smolka & B. Merz, 2006. "Comparative Risk Assessments for the City of Cologne – Storms, Floods, Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 21-44, May.
    4. Gou, H.-R. & Tanaka, S. & Halperin, W.E. & Cameron, L.L., 1999. "Back pain prevalence in US industry and estimates of lost workdays," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(7), pages 1029-1035.
    5. Henry H. Willis, 2007. "Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 597-606, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu Zhang & Yun Luo & Ming Xu & Guantao Wang & Wei Liang & Yang Xiang, 2020. "Relative Risk of High-Danger Industries in China from 2004 to 2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-14, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.
    2. Chen, Shun & Zhao, Xudong & Chen, Zhilong & Hou, Benwei & Wu, Yipeng, 2022. "A game-theoretic method to optimize allocation of defensive resource to protect urban water treatment plants against physical attacks," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Mario Silic & Andrea Back, 2016. "The Influence of Risk Factors in Decision-Making Process for Open Source Software Adoption," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 151-185, January.
    4. Sylwia Bąk, 2023. "The Embedment of Risk Management in Enterprise Management System," International Journal of Contemporary Management, Sciendo, vol. 59(2), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Fatma Yerlikaya-Özkurt & Aysegul Askan, 2020. "Prediction of potential seismic damage using classification and regression trees: a case study on earthquake damage databases from Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3163-3180, September.
    6. Robin L. Dillon & Robert M. Liebe & Thomas Bestafka, 2009. "Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 321-335, March.
    7. Victor Munteanu, 2015. "The Dynamics of the Accounting Models and Their Impact upon the Financial Risk Evaluation," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 1(1), pages 105-117, March.
    8. Bin Ou-Yang & Chun-Chao Chu & Ya-Bin Da & Xiao-Fei Liu & Hai-Ying Zhang, 2015. "Highway flood disaster risk evaluation and management in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 381-397, February.
    9. Andrew F. Whitman, 2015. "Is ERM Legally Required? Yes for Financial and Governmental Institutions, No for Private Enterprises," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 161-197, September.
    10. Han, Lin & Zhao, Xudong & Chen, Zhilong & Gong, Huadong & Hou, Benwei, 2021. "Assessing resilience of urban lifeline networks to intentional attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    11. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2012. "Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 186-203, June.
    12. Terje Aven, 2012. "Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1647-1656, October.
    13. Vikranth Lokeshwar Dhandapani & Shashi Jain, 2024. "Neural Networks for Portfolio-Level Risk Management: Portfolio Compression, Static Hedging, Counterparty Credit Risk Exposures and Impact on Capital Requirement," Papers 2402.17941, arXiv.org.
    14. Don Pagach & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala, 2020. "The Challenges and Opportunities for ERM Post-COVID-19: Agendas for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Henry H. Willis & Tom LaTourrette, 2008. "Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 325-339, April.
    16. Yijun Shi & Guofang Zhai & Shutian Zhou & Yuwen Lu & Wei Chen & Hongbo Liu, 2018. "How Can Cities Adapt to a Multi-Disaster Environment? Empirical Research in Guangzhou (China)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, November.
    17. Mehmood, Mian Saqib & Sheraz, Iram & Mehmood, Asif & G. Mujtaba, Bahaudin, 2017. "Empirical Examination for Operational and Credit Risk Perspective – A Case of Commercial Banks of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 80491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Casey Zuzak & Matthew Mowrer & Emily Goodenough & Jordan Burns & Nicholas Ranalli & Jesse Rozelle, 2022. "The national risk index: establishing a nationwide baseline for natural hazard risk in the US," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 2331-2355, November.
    19. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian & Wang, Linjie, 2024. "Option Pricing Revisited: The Role of Price Volatility and Dynamics," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343544, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Saurabh Prabhu & Mohammad Javanbarg & Marc Lehmann & Sez Atamturktur, 2019. "Multi-peril risk assessment for business downtime of industrial facilities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1327-1356, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:10:p:1680-:d:230905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.