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Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams

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  • Armando Serrano‐Lombillo
  • Ignacio Escuder‐Bueno
  • Manuel G. de Membrillera‐Ortuño
  • Luis Altarejos‐García

Abstract

In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Armando Serrano‐Lombillo & Ignacio Escuder‐Bueno & Manuel G. de Membrillera‐Ortuño & Luis Altarejos‐García, 2011. "Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 1000-1015, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:6:p:1000-1015
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01547.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stan Kaplan, 1997. "The Words of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 407-417, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Vladimir K. Kaishev & Shouqi Zhao, 2015. "Modeling Finite‐Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1919-1939, October.
    2. Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Morales-Torres, Adrián & Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara, 2020. "Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Guanjie He & Junrui Chai & Yuan Qin & Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li, 2020. "Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2677-2697, July.

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