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Deceptive Detection Methods for Effective Security with Inadequate Budgets: The Testing Power Index

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  • Paul Kantor
  • Endre Boros

Abstract

Detection of contraband depends on countermeasures, some of which involve examining cargo containers and/or their associated documents. Document screening is the least expensive, physical methods, such as gamma ray detection are more expensive, and definitive manual unpacking is most expensive. We cannot apply the full array of methods to all incoming cargoes, for budgetary reasons. We study the problem using principles of game theory, and find that best detection rates are achieved when the available budget is allocated between screening and definitive unpacking using a mixture of strategies that maximize detection rate and, further, serve to deceive opponents as to the specific tests to which contraband will be subjected. This yields increases of as much as 100% in detection, with essentially no increase in inspection cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Kantor & Endre Boros, 2010. "Deceptive Detection Methods for Effective Security with Inadequate Budgets: The Testing Power Index," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 663-673, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:4:p:663-673
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01370.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan E. Martonosi & Arnold Barnett, 2006. "How Effective Is Security Screening of Airline Passengers?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 545-552, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina de Gramatica & Fabio Massacci & Woohyun Shim & Uğur Turhan & Julian Williams, 2017. "Agency Problems and Airport Security: Quantitative and Qualitative Evidence on the Impact of Security Training," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 372-395, February.
    2. Pourakbar, M. & Zuidwijk, R.A., 2018. "The role of customs in securing containerized global supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(1), pages 331-340.
    3. Stuart Van Weele & Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, 2012. "Optimization of inspection for dual contraband using a genetic algorithm," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(5), pages 508-525, October.

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