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Risk and economic assessment of U.S. aviation security for passenger-borne bomb attacks

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  • Mark G. Stewart

    (The University of Newcastle)

  • John Mueller

    (Ohio State University
    Cato Institute)

Abstract

A systems reliability analysis is developed that includes 18 layers of security that might disrupt a terrorist organisation undeterred and intent on downing an airliner with a passenger-borne bomb. Overall, they reduce the risk that such an attack would be successful by 93%. The odds that a lone wolf will be successful in such an attack are considerably lower. This level of risk reduction is very robust: security remains high even when the disruption rates that make it up are varied considerably. The same model is used to explore the risk reduction of aviation security measures in other western countries and in Israel. The benefit-to-cost ratio is then calculated for most of the security measures. It considers the costs and the risk reduction of the layer, the losses from a successful terrorist attack, and the attack probability. It is found that the Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) and police, PreCheck, Visible Intermodal Protection Response (VIPR) teams, and canines pass a cost-benefit assessment. However, it finds that air marshals and behavior detection officers, at a combined cost of nearly $1.3 billion per year, fail to be cost-effective. Accordingly, there are likely to be spending reductions that could be made with little or no consequent reduction in security.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2018. "Risk and economic assessment of U.S. aviation security for passenger-borne bomb attacks," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 117-136, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jtrsec:v:11:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s12198-018-0196-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12198-018-0196-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan E. Martonosi & Arnold Barnett, 2006. "How Effective Is Security Screening of Airline Passengers?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 545-552, December.
    2. John Mueller & Mark G. Stewart, 2014. "Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 237-248, Summer.
    3. Henry H. Willis & Tom LaTourrette, 2008. "Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit‐Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 325-339, April.
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    5. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2017. "Risk and economic assessment of expedited passenger screening and TSA PreCheck," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, June.
    6. Detlof von Winterfeldt & Terrence M. O'Sullivan, 2006. "Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 63-75, June.
    7. Sheldon H. Jacobson & Tamana Karnani & John E. Kobza & Lynsey Ritchie, 2006. "A Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Alternative Device Configurations for Aviation‐Checked Baggage Security Screening," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 297-310, April.
    8. Lee, Adrian J. & Jacobson, Sheldon H., 2011. "The impact of aviation checkpoint queues on optimizing security screening effectiveness," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 900-911.
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    Cited by:

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