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Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists

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  • Gregory L. Keeney
  • Detlof von Winterfeldt

Abstract

The risk of terrorism is of great concern to many countries and significant resources are spent to counter this threat. A better understanding of the motivation of terrorists and their reasons for selecting certain modes and targets of attack can help improve the decisions to allocate resources in the fight against terrorism. The fundamental question addressed in this article is: “What do terrorists want?” We take the view that terrorists’ preferences for actions are based on their values and beliefs. An important missing piece in our knowledge of terrorists’ preferences is an understanding of their values. This article uses a novel approach to determine these values and state them as objectives, using principles from decision analysis and value‐focused thinking. Instead of interviewing decisionmakers and stakeholders, as would be normal in decision analysis, we extract the values of terrorists by examining their own writings and verbal statements. To illustrate the approach, we extract the values of Al‐Qaeda and structure them in terms of strategic, fundamental, and means objectives. These objectives are interrelated through a means‐ends network. This information is useful for understanding terrorists’ motivations, intent, and likely actions, as well as for developing policies to counter terrorism at its root causes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory L. Keeney & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2010. "Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1803-1816, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:12:p:1803-1816
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01472.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gregory S. Parnell & Harry W. Conley & Jack A. Jackson & Lee J. Lehmkuhl & John M. Andrew, 1998. "Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1336-1350, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Faheem Aslam & Amir Rafique & Aneel Salman & Hyoung-Goo Kang & Wahbeeah Mohti, 2018. "The Impact Of Terrorism On Financial Markets: Evidence From Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1183-1204, December.
    2. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2016. "In the Opponent's Shoes: Increasing the Behavioral Validity of Attackers’ Judgments in Counterterrorism Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 666-680, April.
    3. Olive Emil Wetter & Valentino Wüthrich, 2015. "“What is dear to you?” Survey of beliefs regarding protection of critical infrastructure against terrorism," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 185-198, September.
    4. Derbyshire, James, 2024. "Integrating modelling-based and stakeholder-focused scenario approaches to close the planning gap and accelerate low-carbon transitions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Dogucan Mazicioglu & Jason R. W. Merrick, 2018. "Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 962-977, May.
    6. Iaiani, Matteo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Reniers, Genserik & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Analysis of events involving the intentional release of hazardous substances from industrial facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. E. S. Levine, 2012. "Estimating Conditional Probabilities of Terrorist Attacks: Modeling Adversaries with Uncertain Value Tradeoffs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 294-303, February.
    8. Brian A Jackson & David R Frelinger & Jennifer Kavanagh & Brett A Wallace, 2021. "Adaptation by intelligent adversaries to defensive measures: framing adaptation options and demonstrating assessment of attacker preferences using proxy intelligence data," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 18(2), pages 61-85, April.
    9. James Derbyshire, 2020. "Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(4), pages 710-727, June.
    10. Killemsetty, Namesh & Johnson, Michael & Patel, Amit, 2022. "Understanding housing preferences of slum dwellers in India: A community-based operations research approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(2), pages 699-713.
    11. Rongchen Zhu & Xiaofeng Hu & Xin Li & Han Ye & Nan Jia, 2020. "Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Johannes Ulrich Siebert & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 97-114, June.
    13. Over Manuel Montes Causil & Danielle Costa Morais, 2023. "Food supplier sorting model for strategic supply chain sustainable development," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 4103-4118, November.
    14. César Gil & David Rios Insua & Jesus Rios, 2016. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 727-741, April.
    15. Christoph Werner & Tim Bedford & John Quigley, 2018. "Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2683-2702, December.
    16. González-Ortega, Jorge & Ríos Insua, David & Cano, Javier, 2019. "Adversarial risk analysis for bi-agent influence diagrams: An algorithmic approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(3), pages 1085-1096.
    17. G. Quijano, Eduardo & Ríos Insua, David & Cano, Javier, 2018. "Critical networked infrastructure protection from adversaries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 27-36.
    18. Jason R. W. Merrick & Philip Leclerc, 2016. "Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 681-693, April.

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