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Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory S. Parnell

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia 23284-2014 & Toffler Associates)

  • Harry W. Conley

    (Joint Simulation System Program Office, Orlando, Florida 32826)

  • Jack A. Jackson

    (AFIT/ENS, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433-7765)

  • Lee J. Lehmkuhl

    (Assistant Professor of Mathematical Sciences, HQ USAFA/DFMS, United States Air Force Academy Colorado 80840-6252)

  • John M. Andrew

    (Air Force Agency for Modeling and Simulation, Orlando, Florida 32826-3276)

Abstract

Air Force 2025 was a study directed by the Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force to identify key system concepts and technologies for achieving air and space dominance in the year 2025. The study was a large effort in which over 200 military experts participated for more than one year. We developed a Value-Focused Thinking model, which we used to evaluate which futuristic system concepts have the greatest potential to ensure future U.S. air and space dominance. We named the value model Foundations 2025 because it represented a return to the basics of air and space dominance. We used the "silver standard" approach for value hierarchy development. The participants identified key verbs to describe tasks that must be performed in 2025 to ensure air and space dominance. The value hierarchy was developed bottom-up by aggregating these verbs into higher order tasks using affinity diagrams. Using the value hierarchy, we used multiattribute decision analysis techniques to develop an additive value model with 134 attributes. The Foundations 2025 value model was successfully used to score 43 futuristic system concepts and provide insights about the most promising system concepts and technologies. The analysis results directly supported the study director and the senior leadership of the United States Air Force.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory S. Parnell & Harry W. Conley & Jack A. Jackson & Lee J. Lehmkuhl & John M. Andrew, 1998. "Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1336-1350, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:44:y:1998:i:10:p:1336-1350
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.44.10.1336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dennis M. Buede, 1986. "Structuring Value Attributes," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 52-62, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kangaspunta, Jussi & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Cost-efficiency analysis of weapon system portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 264-275.
    2. Gerald G. Brown & Robert F. Dell & Heath Holtz & Alexandra M. Newman, 2003. "How US Air Force Space Command Optimizes Long-Term Investment in Space Systems," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Gregory S. Parnell & G. Edgar Bennett & Joseph A. Engelbrecht & Richard Szafranski, 2002. "Improving Resource Allocation Within the National Reconnaissance Office," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 77-90, June.
    4. James S. Dyer & James E. Smith, 2021. "Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5364-5378, September.
    5. Gregory L. Keeney & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2010. "Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(12), pages 1803-1816, December.
    6. G Montibeller & L A Franco, 2011. "Raising the bar: strategic multi-criteria decision analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 855-867, May.
    7. John P. Geis & Gregory S. Parnell & Harry Newton & Terry Bresnick, 2011. "Blue Horizons Study Assesses Future Capabilities and Technologies for the United States Air Force," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 41(4), pages 338-353, August.
    8. Barry Charles Ezell, 2007. "Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I‐VAM)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 571-583, June.
    9. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
    10. Dimitrios Gouglas & Kendall Hoyt & Elizabeth Peacocke & Aristidis Kaloudis & Trygve Ottersen & John-Arne Røttingen, 2019. "Setting Strategic Objectives for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations: An Exploratory Decision Analysis Process," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(6), pages 430-446, November.
    11. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    12. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Bert De Reyck & Zeger Degraeve, 2008. "An Integrated Decision-Making Approach for Improving European Air Traffic Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1395-1409, August.
    13. Jason R. W. Merrick & Martha Grabowski, 2014. "Decision Performance and Safety Performance: A Value-Focused Thinking Study in the Oil Industry," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 105-116, June.
    14. Cameron A. MacKenzie & Kristy A. Bryden & Anna A. Prisacari, 2020. "Integrating narratives into decision making for complex systems engineering design issues," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 65-81, January.
    15. Gerald G. Brown & Robert F. Dell & Alexandra M. Newman, 2004. "Optimizing Military Capital Planning," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 415-425, December.
    16. James E. Smith & James S. Dyer, 2021. "On (Measurable) Multiattribute Value Functions: An Expository Argument," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 247-256, December.
    17. Jay Simon & Eva Regnier & Laura Whitney, 2014. "A Value-Focused Approach to Energy Transformation in the United States Department of Defense," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 117-132, June.
    18. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.

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