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Disease dynamics in a dynamic social network

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  • Christensen, Claire
  • Albert, István
  • Grenfell, Bryan
  • Albert, Réka

Abstract

We develop a framework for simulating a realistic, evolving social network (a city) into which a disease is introduced. We compare our results to prevaccine era measles data for England and Wales, and find that they capture the quantitative and qualitative features of epidemics in populations spanning two orders of magnitude. Our results provide unique insight into how and why the social topology of the contact network influences the propagation of the disease through the population. We argue that network simulation is suitable for concurrently probing contact network dynamics and disease dynamics in ways that prior modeling approaches cannot and it can be extended to the study of less well-documented diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Christensen, Claire & Albert, István & Grenfell, Bryan & Albert, Réka, 2010. "Disease dynamics in a dynamic social network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(13), pages 2663-2674.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:13:p:2663-2674
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.02.034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    2. Hernández Guillén, J.D. & Martín del Rey, A., 2020. "A mathematical model for malware spread on WSNs with population dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    3. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2011. "Discovery of a missing disease spreader," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3412-3426.
    4. Yang, Yu & He, Ze & Song, Zouying & Fu, Xin & Wang, Jianwei, 2018. "Investigation on structural and spatial characteristics of taxi trip trajectory network in Xi’an, China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 755-766.

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