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Risk Analysis for Critical Asset Protection

Author

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  • William L. McGill
  • Bilal M. Ayyub
  • Mark Kaminskiy

Abstract

This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset‐level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit‐cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset‐driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio‐level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • William L. McGill & Bilal M. Ayyub & Mark Kaminskiy, 2007. "Risk Analysis for Critical Asset Protection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1265-1281, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:5:p:1265-1281
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00955.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry F. Martz & Mark E. Johnson, 1987. "Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 35-47, March.
    2. Sandler, Todd & Lapan, Harvey E., 1988. "The Calculus of Dissent: An Analysis of Terrorists' Choice of Targets," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10818, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.
    2. Benjamin Donald Oakes & Lars‐Göran Mattsson & Per Näsman & Andrés Alayón Glazunov, 2018. "A Systems‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1279-1305, June.
    3. David L. Alderson & Gerald G. Brown & W. Matthew Carlyle, 2015. "Operational Models of Infrastructure Resilience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 562-586, April.
    4. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik & Mohamed Eid, 2021. "Functional Safety Concept to Support Hazard Assessment and Risk Management in Water-Supply Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-13, February.
    5. J. S. Busby & B. Green & D. Hutchison, 2017. "Analysis of Affordance, Time, and Adaptation in the Assessment of Industrial Control System Cybersecurity Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1298-1314, July.
    6. Misuri, Alessio & Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2019. "A Bayesian network methodology for optimal security management of critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. Yacov Y. Haimes, 2011. "On the Complex Quantification of Risk: Systems‐Based Perspective on Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1175-1186, August.
    8. Barry Charles Ezell & Steven P. Bennett & Detlof Von Winterfeldt & John Sokolowski & Andrew J. Collins, 2010. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 575-589, April.
    9. Olivier Deck & Thierry Verdel & Romuald Salmon, 2009. "Vulnerability Assessment of Mining Subsidence Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1381-1394, October.
    10. E. S. Levine, 2012. "Estimating Conditional Probabilities of Terrorist Attacks: Modeling Adversaries with Uncertain Value Tradeoffs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 294-303, February.
    11. Abdollah Shafieezadeh & Eun J. Cha & Bruce R. Ellingwood, 2015. "A Decision Framework for Managing Risk to Airports from Terrorist Attack," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 292-306, February.
    12. Bilal M. Ayyub & William L. McGill & Mark Kaminskiy, 2007. "Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All‐Hazards Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 789-801, August.
    13. Abdolmajid Yolmeh & Melike Baykal-Gürsoy, 2019. "Two-Stage Invest–Defend Game: Balancing Strategic and Operational Decisions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 46-66, March.
    14. Michael Greenberg, 2011. "Risk analysis and port security: some contextual observations and considerations," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 121-136, July.
    15. Øystein Amundrud & Terje Aven & Roger Flage, 2017. "How the definition of security risk can be made compatible with safety definitions," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(3), pages 286-294, June.
    16. Wang, Jia & Ni, Shunjiang & Shen, Shifei & Li, Shuying, 2019. "Empirical study of crowd dynamic in public gathering places during a terrorist attack event," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Robin L. Dillon & Genevieve Lester & Richard S. John & Catherine H. Tinsley, 2012. "Differentiating Conflicts in Beliefs Versus Value Tradeoffs in the Domestic Intelligence Policy Debate," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 713-728, April.

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