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Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

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  • Harry F. Martz
  • Mark E. Johnson

Abstract

A quantitative probabilistic/systems analysis model is described which is useful for allocating resources to safeguard valuable documents or materials in either a fixed‐site facility or a moving convoy against an overt terrorist attack. The model is also useful for ranking the sensitive areas at a site according to their survivability of a given hypothesized terrorist attempt. To compare various defense strategies and security configurations, the probability of a successful terrorist activity is computed based on event tree models of the site/security configuration. This calculation incorporates a realistic engagement model (in the event a guard force engages the terrorists prior to completion of their objective) and information on barrier penetration times (for example, distribution of the time to defeat a chain link fence or vault door, traverse an open area, and so forth). Two security analyses are described to illustrate the methodology. One example considers a terrorist attack on a convoy transporting a missile from a storage to a launch facility. The second example involves an attack on a munitions storage facility.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry F. Martz & Mark E. Johnson, 1987. "Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 35-47, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:1:p:35-47
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00967.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey S. Simonoff & Carlos E. Restrepo & Rae Zimmerman, 2007. "Risk‐Management and Risk‐Analysis‐Based Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 547-570, June.
    2. Edouard Kujawski & Gregory A. Miller, 2007. "Quantitative risk‐based analysis for military counterterrorism systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 273-289, December.
    3. Raymond A. Zilinskas & Bruce Hope & D. Warner North, 2004. "A Discussion of Findings and Their Possible Implications from a Workshop on Bioterrorism Threat Assessment and Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 901-908, August.
    4. William L. McGill & Bilal M. Ayyub & Mark Kaminskiy, 2007. "Risk Analysis for Critical Asset Protection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1265-1281, October.
    5. Bilal M. Ayyub & William L. McGill & Mark Kaminskiy, 2007. "Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All‐Hazards Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 789-801, August.
    6. Cynthia Lum & Leslie W. Kennedy & Alison J. Sherley, 2006. "The Effectiveness of Counter‐Terrorism Strategies," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 1-50.

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