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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold‐Smoked Salmon: I. Quantitative Exposure Assessment

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  • Régis Pouillot
  • Nicolas Miconnet
  • Anne‐Laure Afchain
  • Marie Laure Delignette‐Muller
  • Annie Beaufort
  • Laurent Rosso
  • Jean‐Baptiste Denis
  • Marie Cornu

Abstract

A quantitative assessment of the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold‐smoked salmon (CSS) consumption in France is developed. The general framework is a second‐order (or two‐dimensional) Monte Carlo simulation, which characterizes the uncertainty and variability of the exposure estimate. The model takes into account the competitive bacterial growth between L. monocytogenes and the background competitive flora from the end of the production line to the consumer phase. An original algorithm is proposed to integrate this growth in conditions of varying temperature. As part of a more general project led by the French Food Safety Agency (Afssa), specific data were acquired and modeled for this quantitative exposure assessment model, particularly time‐temperature profiles, prevalence data, and contamination‐level data. The sensitivity analysis points out the main influence of the mean temperature in household refrigerators and the prevalence of contaminated CSS on the exposure level. The outputs of this model can be used as inputs for further risk assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Pouillot & Nicolas Miconnet & Anne‐Laure Afchain & Marie Laure Delignette‐Muller & Annie Beaufort & Laurent Rosso & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Marie Cornu, 2007. "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold‐Smoked Salmon: I. Quantitative Exposure Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 683-700, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:3:p:683-700
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00921.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amirhossein Mokhtari & H. Christopher Frey, 2005. "Sensitivity Analysis of a Two‐Dimensional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model Using Analysis of Variance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1511-1529, December.
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    3. Régis Pouillot & Pascal Beaudeau & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Francis Derouin & AFSSA Cryptosporidium Study Group, 2004. "A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Waterborne Cryptosporidiosis in France Using Second‐Order Monte Carlo Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 1-17, February.
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    6. Isabelle Albert & Régis Pouillot & Jean‐Baptiste Denis, 2005. "Stochastically Modeling Listeria Monocytogenes Growth in Farm Tank Milk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1171-1185, October.
    7. Nicolas Miconnet & Marie Cornu & Annie Beaufort & Laurent Rosso & Jean‐Baptiste Denis, 2005. "Uncertainty Distribution Associated with Estimating a Proportion in Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 39-48, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elise Billoir & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Natalie Commeau & Marie Cornu & Véronique Zuliani, 2011. "Probabilistic Modeling of the Fate of Listeria Monocytogenes in Diced Bacon During the Manufacturing Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 237-254, February.
    2. Loup Rimbaud & Fanny Heraud & Sébastien La Vieille & Jean‐Charles Leblanc & Amélie Crepet, 2010. "Quantitative Risk Assessment Relating to Adventitious Presence of Allergens in Food: A Probabilistic Model Applied to Peanut in Chocolate," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 7-19, January.
    3. Mariem Ellouze & Jean‐Pierre Gauchi & Jean‐Christophe Augustin, 2010. "Global Sensitivity Analysis Applied to a Contamination Assessment Model of Listeria monocytogenes in Cold Smoked Salmon at Consumption," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 841-852, May.
    4. Natalie Commeau & Marie Cornu & Isabelle Albert & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Eric Parent, 2012. "Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Assess Between‐ and Within‐Batch Variability of Pathogen Contamination in Food," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 395-415, March.
    5. Régis Pouillot & Véronique Goulet & Marie Laure Delignette‐Muller & Aurélie Mahé & Marie Cornu, 2009. "Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold‐Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 806-819, June.

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