Estimating Preventable Fractions of Disease Caused by a Specified Biological Mechanism: PAHs in Smoking Lung Cancers as an Example

Epidemiology textbooks often interpret population attributable fractions based on 2 × 2 tables or logistic regression models of exposure‐response associations as preventable fractions, i.e., as fractions of illnesses in a population that would be prevented if exposure were removed. In general, this causal interpretation is not correct, since statistical association need not indicate causation; moreover, it does not identify how much risk would be prevented by removing specific constituents of complex exposures. This article introduces and illustrates an approach to calculating useful bounds on preventable fractions, having valid causal interpretations, from the types of partial but useful molecular epidemiological and biological information often available in practice. The method applies probabilistic risk assessment concepts from systems reliability analysis, together with bounding constraints for the relationship between event probabilities and causation (such as that the probability that exposure X causes response Y cannot exceed the probability that exposure X precedes response Y, or the probability that both X and Y occur) to bound the contribution to causation from specific causal pathways. We illustrate the approach by estimating an upper bound on the contribution to lung cancer risk made by a specific, much‐discussed causal pathway that links smoking to a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) (specifically, benzo(a)pyrene diol epoxide–DNA) adducts at hot spot codons at p53 in lung cells. The result is a surprisingly small preventable fraction (of perhaps 7% or less) for this pathway, suggesting that it will be important to consider other mechanisms and non‐PAH constituents of tobacco smoke in designing less risky tobacco‐based products.