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Statistical Issues in the Estimation of Assigned Shares for Carcinogenesis Liability

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  • Louis Anthony Cox

Abstract

Congress is currently considering adopting a mathematical formula to assign shares in cancer causation to specific doses of radiation, for use in establishing liability and compensation awards. The proposed formula, if it were sound, would allow difficult problems in tort law and public policy to be resolved by reference to tabulated “probabilities of causation.” This article examines the statistical and conceptual bases for the proposed methodology. We find that the proposed formula is incorrect as an expression for “probability and causation,” that it implies hidden, debatable policy judgments in its treatment of factor interactions and uncertainties, and that it can not in general be quantified with sufficient precision to be useful. Three generic sources of statistical uncertainty are identified—sampling variability, population heterogeneity, and error propagation—that prevent accurate quantification of “assigned shares.” These uncertainties arise whenever aggregate epidemiological or risk data are used to draw causal inferences about individual cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Anthony Cox, 1987. "Statistical Issues in the Estimation of Assigned Shares for Carcinogenesis Liability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 71-80, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:1:p:71-80
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00970.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louis Anthony Cox, 1984. "Probability of Causation and the Attributable Proportion Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 221-230, September.
    2. Louis A. Cox, Jr., 1985. "A New Measure of Attributable Risk for Public Health Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(7), pages 800-813, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertram Price & Michael MacNicoll, 2015. "Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 931-940, May.

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