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Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Risk Assessment: The UK experience

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  • Eric P. M. Grist

Abstract

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom have mainly had the objective of determining the risks posed to humans from exposure to the causal agents associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld‐Jakob disease (vCJD). In this article, I examine 19 of these risk assessments published to date and consider how their results might be influenced by underlying model assumptions and methodology. Three separate aspects common to all the assessments are infective load estimation, exposure pathway identification, and risk estimation. These are each discussed in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric P. M. Grist, 2005. "Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Risk Assessment: The UK experience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 519-532, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:25:y:2005:i:3:p:519-532
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00619.x
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    1. N. M. Ferguson & A. C. Ghani & C. A. Donnelly & T. J. Hagenaars & R. M. Anderson, 2002. "Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flock," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6870), pages 420-424, January.
    2. Fiona Houston & Wilfred Goldmann & Angela Chong & Martin Jeffrey & Lorenzo González & James Foster & David Parnham & Nora Hunter, 2003. "BSE in sheep bred for resistance to infection," Nature, Nature, vol. 423(6939), pages 498-498, May.
    3. M. E. Bruce & R. G. Will & J. W. Ironside & I. McConnell & D. Drummond & A. Suttie & L. McCardle & A. Chree & J. Hope & C. Birkett & S. Cousens & H. Fraser & C. J. Bostock, 1997. "Transmissions to mice indicate that ‘new variant’ CJD is caused by the BSE agent," Nature, Nature, vol. 389(6650), pages 498-501, October.
    4. Andrew F. Hill & Melanie Desbruslais & Susan Joiner & Katie C. L. Sidle & Ian Gowland & John Collinge & Lawrence J. Doey & Peter Lantos, 1997. "The same prion strain causes vCJD and BSE," Nature, Nature, vol. 389(6650), pages 448-450, October.
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