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Monte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments

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  • Kimberly M. Thompson
  • David E. Burmaster
  • Edmund A.C. Crouch3

Abstract

Most public health risk assessments assume and combine a series of average, conservative, and worst‐case values to derive a conservative point estimate of risk. This procedure has major limitations. This paper demonstrates a new methodology for extended uncertainty analyses in public health risk assessments using Monte Carlo techniques. The extended method begins as do some conventional methods—with the preparation of a spreadsheet to estimate exposure and risk. This method, however, continues by modeling key inputs as random variables described by probability density functions (PDFs). Overall, the technique provides a quantitative way to estimate the probability distributions for exposure and health risks within the validity of the model used. As an example, this paper presents a simplified case study for children playing in soils contaminated with benzene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP).

Suggested Citation

  • Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster & Edmund A.C. Crouch3, 1992. "Monte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 53-63, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:12:y:1992:i:1:p:53-63
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01307.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster, 1991. "Parametric Distributions for Soil Ingestion by Children," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 339-342, June.
    2. Thomas E. McKone, 1990. "Dermal Uptake of Organic Chemicals from a Soil Matrix," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), pages 407-419, September.
    3. W.T. Barton, 1989. "Response from Palisade Corporation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(2), pages 259-260, June.
    4. Peter K. LaGoy, 1987. "Estimated Soil Ingestion Rates for Use in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(3), pages 355-359, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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