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A Risk Assessment Model to Evaluate the Role of Fecal Contamination in Recreational Water on the Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis at the Community Level in Ontario

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  • K. D. M. Pintar
  • A. Fazil
  • F. Pollari
  • D. F. Charron
  • D. Waltner‐Toews
  • S. A. McEwen

Abstract

A quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to simulate the role of recreational water contact in the transmission of cryptosporidiosis in a model Ontario community. Stochastic simulations were based on plausible modes of contamination of a pool (literature derived), river (site‐specific), and recreational lakes (literature derived). The highest estimated risks of infection were derived from the (highly contaminated) recreational lake scenario, considered the upper end for risk of infection for both children (10 infections per 1,000 swims [5‰: two infections per 1,000 swims; 95‰: three infections per 100 swims]) and adults (four infections per 1,000 swims [5‰: four infections per 1,000 swims; 95‰: one infection per 100 swims]). Simulating the likely Cryptosporidium oocyst concentration in a lane pool that a child would be exposed to following a diarrheal fecal release event resulted in the third highest mean risk of infection (four infections per 10,000 swims [5‰: three infections per 100,000; 95‰: 10 infections per 10,000 swims]). The findings from this study illustrate the need for systematic and standardized research to quantify Cryptosporidium oocyst levels in Canadian public pools and recreational beaches. There is also a need to capture the swimming practices of the Canadian public, including most common forms and frequency measures. The study findings suggest that swimming in natural swim environments and in pools following a recent fecal contamination event pose significant public health risks. When considering these risks relative to other modes of cryptosporidiosis transmission, they are significant.

Suggested Citation

  • K. D. M. Pintar & A. Fazil & F. Pollari & D. F. Charron & D. Waltner‐Toews & S. A. McEwen, 2010. "A Risk Assessment Model to Evaluate the Role of Fecal Contamination in Recreational Water on the Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis at the Community Level in Ontario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 49-64, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:49-64
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01321.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David E. Burmaster & Paul D. Anderson, 1994. "Principles of Good Practice for the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques in Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 477-481, August.
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    1. K. D. M. Pintar & A. Fazil & F. Pollari & D. Waltner‐Toews & D. F. Charron & S. A. McEwen & T. Walton, 2012. "Considering the Risk of Infection by Cryptosporidium via Consumption of Municipally Treated Drinking Water from a Surface Water Source in a Southwestern Ontario Community," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(7), pages 1122-1138, July.

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