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Estimation of the Joint Risk from Multiple‐Compound Exposure Based on Single‐Compound Experiments

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  • James J. Chen
  • David W. Gaylor
  • Ralph L. Kodell

Abstract

In the absence of data from multiple‐compound exposure experiments, the health risk from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the results of the individual single‐compound experiments. A procedure to obtain an upper confidence limit on the total risk is proposed under the assumption that total risk for the mixture is additive. It is shown that the current practice of simply summing the individual upper‐confidence‐limit risk estimates as the upper‐confidence‐limit estimate on the total excess risk of the mixture may overestimate the true upper bound. In general, if the individual upper‐confidence‐limit risk estimates are on the same order of magnitude, the proposed method gives a smaller upper‐confidence‐limit risk estimate than the estimate based on summing the individual upper‐confidence‐limit estimates; the difference increases as the number of carcinogenic components increases.

Suggested Citation

  • James J. Chen & David W. Gaylor & Ralph L. Kodell, 1990. "Estimation of the Joint Risk from Multiple‐Compound Exposure Based on Single‐Compound Experiments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 285-290, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:10:y:1990:i:2:p:285-290
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01049.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles C. Brown & Kenneth C. Chu, 1989. "Additive and Multiplicative Models and Multistage Carcinogenesis Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 99-105, March.
    2. Herman J. Gibb & Chao W. Chen, 1986. "Multistage Model Interpretation of Additive and Multiplicative Carcinogenic Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 167-170, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ralph L. Kodell & Daniel Krewski & Jan M. Zielinski, 1991. "Additive and Multiplicative Relative Risk in the Two‐Stage Clonal Expansion Model of Carcinogenesis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(3), pages 483-490, September.
    2. Vincent James Cogliano, 1997. "Plausible Upper Bounds: Are Their Sums Plausible?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 77-84, February.
    3. T. R. Auton, 1991. "Joint Risk from Multiple Compound Exposure," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 181-183, June.
    4. Jing‐Shiang Hwang & James J. Chen, 1999. "An Evaluation of Risk Estimation Procedures for Mixtures of Carcinogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1071-1076, December.
    5. David W. Gaylor & James J. Chen, 1996. "A Simple Upper Limit for the Sum of the Risks of the Components in a Mixture," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 395-398, June.

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    5. Charles C. Brown & Kenneth C. Chu, 1989. "Additive and Multiplicative Models and Multistage Carcinogenesis Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 99-105, March.

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