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Is It Safer to Fly or Drive?

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard Evans
  • Michael C. Frick
  • Richard C. Schwing

Abstract

In attempts to soothe the nascent fear of the scheduled airline traveler, passengers waiting takeoff are sometimes reminded of the cliche that they may have already completed the most dangerous part of their trip — the drive to the airport. The objective of this paper is to communicate under what conditions air travel is indeed safer than highway travel and vice versa. The conventional wisdom among risk communicators that air travel is so much safer than car travel arises from the most widely quoted death rates per billion miles for each — 0.6 for air compared to 24 for road. There are three reasons why such an unqualified comparison of aggregated fatality rates is inappropriate. First, the airline rate is passenger fatalities per passenger mile, whereas the road rate is all fatalities (any occupants, pedestrians, etc.) per vehicle mile. Second, road travel that competes with air travel is on the rural interstate system, not on average roads. Third, driver and vehicle characteristics, and driver behavior, lead to car‐driver risks that vary over a wide range. Expressions derived to compare risk for drivers with given characteristics to those on airline trips of given distance showed that 40‐year‐old, belted, alcohol‐free drivers of cars 700 pounds heavier than average are slightly less likely to be killed in 600 miles of rural interstate driving than in airline trips of the same length. Compared to this driver, 18‐year‐old, unbelted, intoxicated, male drivers of cars 700 pounds lighter than average have a risk over 1000 times greater. Furthermore, it is shown that the cliche above is untrue for a group of drivers having the age distribution of airline passengers.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Evans & Michael C. Frick & Richard C. Schwing, 1990. "Is It Safer to Fly or Drive?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 239-246, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:10:y:1990:i:2:p:239-246
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb01045.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonard Evans, 1987. "Estimating Fatality Reductions from Increased Safety Belt Use," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 49-57, March.
    2. Arnold Barnett & Mary K. Higgins, 1989. "Airline Safety: The Last Decade," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Evans, L. & Frick, M.C., 1988. "Seating position in cars and fatality risk," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 78(11), pages 1456-1458.
    4. Richard C. Schwing & Dana B. Kamerud, 1988. "The Distribution of Risks: Vehicle Occupant Fatalities and Time of the Week," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 127-133, March.
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    2. Fischbeck, Paul S. & Gengler, Barbara & Gerard, David & Weinberg, Randy S., 2007. "An Interactive Tool to Compare and Communicate Traffic Safety Risks: TrafficSTATS," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 46(3).
    3. Michael Sivak & Daniel J. Weintraub & Michael Flannagan, 1991. "Nonstop Flying Is Safer Than Driving," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(1), pages 145-148, March.
    4. Arnold Barnett, 2020. "Aviation Safety: A Whole New World?," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 84-96, January.
    5. Rossiter, Adriana & Dresner, Martin, 2004. "The impact of the September 11th security fee and passenger wait time on traffic diversion and highway fatalities," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 225-230.
    6. Nancy L. Rose, 1992. "Fear of Flying? Economic Analysis of Airline Safety," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 75-94, Spring.
    7. William R. Freudenburg & Cynthia‐Lou Coleman & James Gonzales & Catherine Helgeland, 1996. "Media Coverage of Hazard Events: Analyzing the Assumptions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 31-42, February.
    8. Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2014. "Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(12), pages 2143-2162, December.

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