IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v19y2010i1p38-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the prospect theory also hold for power traders? Empirical evidence from a Swiss energy company

Author

Listed:
  • Erkan Kalayci
  • Ulkem Basdas

Abstract

Currently, a great deal of empirical research has been done to test and verify Kahneman and Tversky's (1979) prospect theory. Nevertheless, the research only addresses private or institutional investors in the financial industry and has neglected specific tests in the real sector. In this paper, our goal is to examine whether the implications of prospect theory and the house money effect also hold for the power traders in the energy sector. The results show that the reflection and house money effects do not hold. Our results indicate the possible influence of the recent global crisis on prospect theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Erkan Kalayci & Ulkem Basdas, 2010. "Does the prospect theory also hold for power traders? Empirical evidence from a Swiss energy company," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 38-45, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:38-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2009.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2009.11.001
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rfe.2009.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Norman Strong & Nicholas Taylor, 2001. "Time Diversification: Empirical Tests," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3‐4), pages 263-302, April.
    3. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2005. "Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, February.
    4. Fox, Craig R & Rogers, Brett A & Tversky, Amos, 1996. "Options Traders Exhibit Subadditive Decision Weights," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 5-17, July.
    5. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    6. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2007. "Insights into Trader Behavior: Risk Aversion and Probability Weighting," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37569, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. John W. Payne & Dan J. Laughhunn & Roy Crum, 1984. "Multiattribute Risky Choice Behavior: The Editing of Complex Prospects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(11), pages 1350-1361, November.
    8. Budescu, David V. & Weiss, Wendy, 1987. "Reflection of transitive and intransitive preferences: A test of prospect theory," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 184-202, April.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:698-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    12. Lakonishok, Josef & Smidt, Seymour, 1986. "Volume for Winners and Losers: Taxation and Other Motives for Stock Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 951-974, September.
    13. Olsen, Robert A., 1997. "Prospect theory as an explanation of risky choice by professional investors: Some evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 225-232.
    14. Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
    15. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    16. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
    17. John A. List, 2003. "Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 41-71.
    18. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    19. James G. March & Zur Shapira, 1987. "Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(11), pages 1404-1418, November.
    20. Norman Strong & Nicholas Taylor, 2001. "Time Diversification: Empirical Tests," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3‐4), pages 263-302, April.
    21. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    22. Shlomo Benartzi, 2001. "Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company Stock," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1747-1764, October.
    23. Andreassen, Paul B., 1988. "Explaining the price-volume relationship: The difference between price changes and changing prices," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 371-389, June.
    24. Zeelenberg, Marcel & van Dijk, Eric, 1997. "A reverse sunk cost effect in risky decision making: Sometimes we have too much invested to gamble," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 677-691, November.
    25. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    26. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Jinxi & Johansson, Daniel J.A., 2024. "Adapting to uncertainty: Modeling adaptive investment decisions in the electricity system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    2. Tao, Zhenmin & Moncada, Jorge Andres & Delarue, Erik, 2023. "Exploring the impact of boundedly rational power plant investment decision-making by applying prospect theory," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalayci, Erkan & Basdas, Ulkem, 2010. "Does the prospect theory also hold for power traders? Empirical evidence from a Swiss energy company," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-45, January.
    2. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten, 2017. "On the applicability of maximum likelihood methods: From experimental to financial data," SAFE Working Paper Series 148, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.
    3. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    4. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    5. Jaya M. Prosad & Sujata Kapoor & Jhumur Sengupta & Saurav Roychoudhary, 2017. "Overconfidence and Disposition Effect in Indian Equity Market: An Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1303-1321, October.
    6. Ravi Dhar & Ning Zhu, 2006. "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 726-740, May.
    7. Pereira Reichhardt, Joaquín & Iqbal, Tabassum, 2014. "Investment Decisions: Are we fully-Rational?," MPRA Paper 57686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shu, Pei-Gi & Yeh, Yin-Hua & Chiu, Shean-Bii & Chen, Hsuan-Chi, 2005. "Are Taiwanese individual investors reluctant to realize their losses?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-223, March.
    9. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    10. Mujcic, Redzo & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2022. "How Do Humans Respond to Huge Financial Losses?," IZA Discussion Papers 15536, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Mirjam Lehenkari & Jukka Perttunen, 2010. "Holding on to the Losers: Finnish Evidence," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Li, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2013. "Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 715-739.
    14. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
    15. Kliger, Doron & Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2008. "Reference point formation by market investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1782-1794, September.
    16. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya, 2008. "Reference point adaptation: Tests in the domain of security trading," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 67-81, January.
    17. Ben-David, Itzhak & Hirshleifer, David, 2011. "Beyond the Disposition Effect: Do Investors Really Like Gains More Than Losses?," Working Paper Series 2011-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    18. Lee, Carmen & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Paas, Leo, 2010. "Why do investors sell losers? How adaptation to losses affects future capitulation decisions," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    19. Marco Pleßner, 2017. "The disposition effect: a survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 1-30, February.
    20. Oehler, Andreas & Heilmann, Klaus & Lager, Volker & Oberlander, Michael, 2003. "Coexistence of disposition investors and momentum traders in stock markets: experimental evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 503-524, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:38-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.