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Multiattribute Risky Choice Behavior: The Editing of Complex Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • John W. Payne

    (Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706)

  • Dan J. Laughhunn

    (Center for International Economic and Business Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32605)

  • Roy Crum

    (Center for International Economic and Business Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32605)

Abstract

This investigation draws upon concepts from prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky [Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 263--291.]) and multiattribute utility theory (Keeney and Raiffa [Keeney, R. L., H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Wiley, New York.]) in an examination of the multiattribute risky choice behavior of 128 managers. The questions of how managers edit multiattribute prospects and how editing relates to various independence assumptions were explored. The major result is that managers appear to violate attribute independence in its general form, and especially in the form of the marginality assumption. The most common form of behavior observed was multiattribute risk aversion for prospects involving only gains and multiattribute risk seeking for prospects involving only losses. This result reinforces the importance of a target, reference point, or aspiration level that has been found in earlier studies of single attribute risky choice. Furthermore, the result casts doubt on such commonly used multiattribute utility functions as the additive, multiplicative, and multilinear forms. The implications of the results for the development of multiattribute risky decision aids are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • John W. Payne & Dan J. Laughhunn & Roy Crum, 1984. "Multiattribute Risky Choice Behavior: The Editing of Complex Prospects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(11), pages 1350-1361, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:30:y:1984:i:11:p:1350-1361
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.30.11.1350
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    Cited by:

    1. Carey K. Morewedge & Simone Tang & Richard P. Larrick, 2018. "Betting Your Favorite to Win: Costly Reluctance to Hedge Desired Outcomes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 997-1014, March.
    2. Kuhberger, Anton, 1998. "The Influence of Framing on Risky Decisions: A Meta-analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 23-55, July.
    3. Edwards, Kimberley D., 1996. "Prospect theory: A literature review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 19-38.
    4. Beccacece, Francesca & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Buzzard, Greg & Cillo, Alessandra & Zionts, Stanley, 2015. "Elicitation of multiattribute value functions through high dimensional model representations: Monotonicity and interactions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 517-527.
    5. Katarzyna Kochaniak & Paweł Ulman, 2020. "Risk-Intolerant but Risk-Taking—Towards a Better Understanding of Inconsistent Survey Responses of the Euro Area Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-26, August.
    6. Pragati Hemrajani & Rajni & Rahul Dhiman, 2024. "Retail Investors’ Financial Risk Tolerance and Risk-taking Behaviour: The Role of Psychological Factors," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 13(1), pages 87-105, January.
    7. Ravi Dhar & Ning Zhu, 2006. "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 726-740, May.
    8. Wilson, Kevin J. & Quigley, John, 2016. "Allocation of tasks for reliability growth using multi-attribute utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 259-271.
    9. Weber, Elke U., 1989. "A Behavioral Approach To Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Implications And Lessons For Expected Utility Theory," 1989 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, April 9-12, 1989, Sanibel Island, Florida 271520, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    10. Lindner, Thomas & Puck, Jonas & Stocco, Giulia, 2023. "Asymmetric risk perception and firm financing in the institutional envelope," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(3).
    11. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2002. "Experimental test of the prospect theory value function: A stochastic dominance approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 1058-1081, November.
    12. Han Bleichrodt & Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2009. "Additive Utility in Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 863-873, May.
    13. Erkan Kalayci & Ulkem Basdas, 2010. "Does the prospect theory also hold for power traders? Empirical evidence from a Swiss energy company," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 38-45, January.
    14. Kalayci, Erkan & Basdas, Ulkem, 2010. "Does the prospect theory also hold for power traders? Empirical evidence from a Swiss energy company," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-45, January.
    15. Knudsen, Thorbjørn, 2008. "Reference groups and variable risk strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 22-36, April.

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