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The Effect of Minimum Wage on Per Capita Income in Arizona: Empirical Analysis

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  • Dallin Overstreet

Abstract

Arizonans have elected to increase the minimum wage twice since 2006 via ballot measures while lawmakers doubt that increasing the minimum wage positively affects workers. Past studies have had conflicting results about the effects of changes in the minimum wage on various indicators of economic health. We utilize a quasi‐experimental time‐series study analyzing the impact a change in minimum wage has on per capita income specifically within the state of Arizona. The experiment reviews data from 1976 to 2017 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the St. Louis Federal Reserve. We conclude that a 1 percent increase in the minimum wage will on average produce a 1.13 percent increase in per capita income in Arizona. Although this study used data specific to Arizona, we believe that there could be a strong case for external validity based on the findings of past studies done in this research area. This conclusion could have large implications concerning the use of minimum wage as an anti‐poverty and economic growth policy tool. 自2006年以来，亚利桑那州州民通过票选提高了两次最低工资，而立法者却怀疑提高最低工资是否会对工人产生积极影响。以往研究就最低工资变化对各种经济健康指标的影响得出了相互矛盾的结果。笔者通过一项准实验时间序列研究，分析了最低工资变化对人均收入的影响，尤其是亚利桑那州的影响情况。该实验回顾了1976年到2017年间劳工统计局 (BLS)和圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据。结论表明，在亚利桑那州，最低工资增加1%将使人均收入平均增加1.13%。虽然这项研究的使用数据只针对亚利桑那州，但笔者有充分理由相信，基于过去在这一研究领域的研究结果，这一结论也适用于其他州。它可能会产生关于使用最低工资作为脱离贫困和经济增长政策工具的重大影响。 los arizonianos han optado por aumentar el salario mínimo dos veces desde 2006 a través de medidas de votación, mientras que los legisladores dudan de que el aumento del salario mínimo afecte positivamente a los trabajadores. Estudios anteriores han obtenido resultados contradictorios sobre los efectos de los cambios en el salario mínimo en varios indicadores de salud económica. Utilizamos un estudio de series de tiempo cuasi experimentales que analizan el impacto que un cambio en el salario mínimo tiene en el ingreso per cápita específicamente dentro del estado de Arizona. El experimento revisa datos de 1976 a 2017 de la Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales (BLS) y la Reserva Federal de St. Louis. Concluimos que un aumento del 1% en el salario mínimo producirá en promedio un aumento del 1.13% en el ingreso per cápita en Arizona. Aunque este estudio utilizó datos específicos de Arizona, creemos que podría haber un caso sólido para la validez externa basado en los hallazgos de estudios anteriores realizados en esta área de investigación. Esta conclusión podría tener grandes implicaciones con respecto al uso del salario mínimo como una herramienta de política de lucha contra la pobreza y el crecimiento económico.

Suggested Citation

  • Dallin Overstreet, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wage on Per Capita Income in Arizona: Empirical Analysis," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(1-2), pages 156-168, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:povpop:v:11:y:2019:i:1-2:p:156-168
    DOI: 10.1002/pop4.249
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