IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/navres/v59y2012i8p601-612.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Newsvendor problems with sequentially revealed demand information

Author

Listed:
  • Jing‐Sheng Song
  • Paul H. Zipkin

Abstract

This article analyzes a capacity/inventory planning problem with a one‐time uncertain demand. There is a long procurement leadtime, but as some partial demand information is revealed, the firm is allowed to cancel some of the original capacity reservation at a certain fee or sell off some inventory at a lower price. The problem can be viewed as a generalization of the classic newsvendor problem and can be found in many applications. One key observation of the analysis is that the dynamic programming formulation of the problem is closely related to a recursion that arises in the study of a far more complex system, a series inventory system with stochastic demand over an infinite horizon. Using this equivalence, we characterize the optimal policy and assess the value of the additional demand information. We also extend the analysis to a richer model of information. Here, demand is driven by an underlying Markov process, representing economic conditions, weather, market competition, and other environmental factors. Interestingly, under this more general model, the connection to the series inventory system is different. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Jing‐Sheng Song & Paul H. Zipkin, 2012. "Newsvendor problems with sequentially revealed demand information," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(8), pages 601-612, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:59:y:2012:i:8:p:601-612
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.21509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.21509
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/nav.21509?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katy S. Azoury, 1985. "Bayes Solution to Dynamic Inventory Models Under Unknown Demand Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(9), pages 1150-1160, September.
    2. Kevin H. Shang & Jing-Sheng Song, 2003. "Newsvendor Bounds and Heuristic for Optimal Policies in Serial Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 618-638, May.
    3. Fangruo Chen & Jing-Sheng Song, 2001. "Optimal Policies for Multiechelon Inventory Problems with Markov-Modulated Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(2), pages 226-234, April.
    4. William A. Massey, 1987. "Stochastic Orderings for Markov Processes on Partially Ordered Spaces," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 350-367, May.
    5. Jeffrey I. McGill & Garrett J. van Ryzin, 1999. "Revenue Management: Research Overview and Prospects," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 233-256, May.
    6. Jing-Sheng Song & Paul Zipkin, 1993. "Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 351-370, April.
    7. Keilson, Julian & Kester, Adri, 1977. "Monotone matrices and monotone Markov processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 231-241, July.
    8. Thomas E. Morton, 1978. "The Nonstationary Infinite Horizon Inventory Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(14), pages 1474-1482, October.
    9. J. W. Cohen & Michael Rubinovitch, 1977. "On Level Crossings and Cycles in Dam Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 2(4), pages 297-310, November.
    10. Guillermo Gallego & Paul Zipkin, 1999. "Stock Positioning and Performance Estimation in Serial Production-Transportation Systems," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 77-88.
    11. Apostolos Burnetas & Stephen Gilbert, 2001. "Future Capacity Procurements Under Unknown Demand and Increasing Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(7), pages 979-992, July.
    12. Yoichiro Fukuda, 1961. "Optimal disposal policies," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(3), pages 221-227, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Işık Biçer, & Florian Lücker, & Tamer Boyaci,, 2019. "Beyond retail stores: Managing product proliferation along the supply chain," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-19-02_R2, ESMT European School of Management and Technology, revised 16 Mar 2021.
    2. Jochen Schlapp & Moritz Fleischmann & Danja Sonntag, 2022. "Inventory timing: How to serve a stochastic season," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(7), pages 2891-2906, July.
    3. Işık Biçer & Florian Lücker & Tamer Boyaci, 2019. "Beyond retail stores: Managing product proliferation along the supply chain," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-19-02_R1, ESMT European School of Management and Technology, revised 10 Feb 2020.
    4. Eduard Calvo & Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz, 2016. "Sourcing Strategies and Supplier Incentives for Short-Life-Cycle Goods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 436-455, February.
    5. Dursun, İpek & Akcay, Alp & van Houtum, Geert-Jan, 2024. "How good must failure predictions be to make local spare parts stock superfluous?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    6. Işık Biçer & Florian Lücker & Tamer Boyacı, 2022. "Beyond Retail Stores: Managing Product Proliferation along the Supply Chain," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(3), pages 1135-1156, March.
    7. Felix Papier, 2016. "Supply Allocation Under Sequential Advance Demand Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 341-361, April.
    8. Işık Biçer, & Florian Lücker, & Tamer Boyaci,, 2019. "Beyond retail stores: Managing product proliferation along the supply chain," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-19-02_R3, ESMT European School of Management and Technology, revised 16 Sep 2021.
    9. Işık Biçer, & Florian Lücker, & Tamer Boyaci,, 2019. "Beyond retail stores: Managing product proliferation along the supply chain," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-19-02, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    10. Man Yu & Roman Kapuscinski & Hyun-Soo Ahn, 2015. "Advance Selling: Effects of Interdependent Consumer Valuations and Seller’s Capacity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2100-2117, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Chen & Jing-Sheng Song & Yue Zhang, 2017. "Serial Inventory Systems with Markov-Modulated Demand: Derivative Bounds, Asymptotic Analysis, and Insights," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(5), pages 1231-1249, October.
    2. Tan, Tarkan & Gullu, Refik & Erkip, Nesim, 2007. "Modelling imperfect advance demand information and analysis of optimal inventory policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 897-923, March.
    3. Xiangwen Lu & Jing-Sheng Song & Amelia Regan, 2006. "Inventory Planning with Forecast Updates: Approximate Solutions and Cost Error Bounds," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1079-1097, December.
    4. Ricardo Montoya & Carlos Gonzalez, 2019. "A Hidden Markov Model to Detect On-Shelf Out-of-Stocks Using Point-of-Sale Data," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 932-948, October.
    5. Lingxiu Dong & Hau L. Lee, 2003. "Optimal Policies and Approximations for a Serial Multiechelon Inventory System with Time-Correlated Demand," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 969-980, December.
    6. Alp Muharremoglu & John N. Tsitsiklis, 2008. "A Single-Unit Decomposition Approach to Multiechelon Inventory Systems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 1089-1103, October.
    7. Retsef Levi & Robin Roundy & Van Anh Truong & Xinshang Wang, 2017. "Provably Near-Optimal Balancing Policies for Multi-Echelon Stochastic Inventory Control Models," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(1), pages 256-276, January.
    8. Van-Anh Truong, 2014. "Approximation Algorithm for the Stochastic Multiperiod Inventory Problem via a Look-Ahead Optimization Approach," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 1039-1056, November.
    9. Guillermo Gallego & Özalp Özer, 2003. "Optimal Replenishment Policies for Multiechelon Inventory Problems Under Advance Demand Information," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 157-175, February.
    10. Peter Berling & Victor Martínez‐de‐Albéniz, 2016. "A characterization of optimal base‐stock levels for a multistage serial supply chain," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 32-46, February.
    11. de Kok, Ton & Grob, Christopher & Laumanns, Marco & Minner, Stefan & Rambau, Jörg & Schade, Konrad, 2018. "A typology and literature review on stochastic multi-echelon inventory models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 955-983.
    12. Satya S. Malladi & Alan L. Erera & Chelsea C. White, 2023. "Inventory control with modulated demand and a partially observed modulation process," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 321(1), pages 343-369, February.
    13. Qiu, Ruozhen & Sun, Minghe & Lim, Yun Fong, 2017. "Optimizing (s, S) policies for multi-period inventory models with demand distribution uncertainty: Robust dynamic programing approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 880-892.
    14. Yossi Aviv, 2003. "A Time-Series Framework for Supply-Chain Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 210-227, April.
    15. Yossi Aviv & Awi Federgruen, 2001. "Design for Postponement: A Comprehensive Characterization of Its Benefits Under Unknown Demand Distributions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(4), pages 578-598, August.
    16. Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz & Alejandro Lago, 2010. "Myopic Inventory Policies Using Individual Customer Arrival Information," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 663-672, May.
    17. Stephen C. Graves, 1999. "A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    18. Amar Sapra & Van-Anh Truong & Rachel Q. Zhang, 2010. "How Much Demand Should Be Fulfilled?," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 719-733, June.
    19. Erhan Bayraktar & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Inventory management with partially observed nonstationary demand," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 7-39, April.
    20. Xiuli Chao & Sean X. Zhou, 2007. "Probabilistic solution and bounds for serial inventory systems with discounted and average costs," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(6), pages 623-631, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:59:y:2012:i:8:p:601-612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6750 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.