IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v35y2011i3p165-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies

Author

Listed:
  • Charlie Wilson
  • Arnulf Grubler

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns, drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment of energy system dynamics in the scenario analysis on climate mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic implications for clean energy and technology innovation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Charlie Wilson & Arnulf Grubler, 2011. "Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 165-184, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:165-184
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01386.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01386.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01386.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Moe, Espen, 2010. "Energy, industry and politics: Energy, vested interests, and long-term economic growth and development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1730-1740.
    3. Valentina Bosetti & David G. Victor, 2011. "Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility," The Energy Journal, , vol. 32(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Bertrand Magne, Socrates Kypreos, and Hal Turton, 2010. "Technology Options for Low Stabilization Pathways with MERGE," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    5. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 347-372, June.
    6. Nicholas Crafts, 2004. "Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 338-351, April.
    7. Jacobsson, Staffan & Lauber, Volkmar, 2006. "The politics and policy of energy system transformation--explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 256-276, February.
    8. Lipsey, Richard G. & Carlaw, Kenneth I. & Bekar, Clifford T., 2005. "Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long-Term Economic Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290895.
    9. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2009. "Rejecting renewables: The socio-technical impediments to renewable electricity in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4500-4513, November.
    10. Sanden, Bjorn A. & Azar, Christian, 2005. "Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets--economy wide versus technology specific approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1557-1576, August.
    11. Astrand, K. & Neij, L., 2006. "An assessment of governmental wind power programmes in Sweden--using a systems approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 277-296, February.
    12. Garud, Raghu & Karnoe, Peter, 2003. "Bricolage versus breakthrough: distributed and embedded agency in technology entrepreneurship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 277-300, February.
    13. Robert W. Fri, 2003. "The Role of Knowledge: Technological Innovation in the Energy System," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 51-74.
    14. Dahlman, Carl J. & Ross-Larson, Bruce & Westphal, Larry E., 1987. "Managing technological development: Lessons from the newly industrializing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 759-775, June.
    15. Suarez, Fernando F., 2004. "Battles for technological dominance: an integrative framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 271-286, March.
    16. Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
    17. Sahal, Devendra, 1985. "Technological guideposts and innovation avenues," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 61-82, April.
    18. Haas, Reinhard & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Ajanovic, Amela & Faber, Thomas & Kranzl, Lukas & Müller, Andreas & Resch, Gustav, 2008. "Towards sustainability of energy systems: A primer on how to apply the concept of energy services to identify necessary trends and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4012-4021, November.
    19. Grubler, Arnulf, 2010. "The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5174-5188, September.
    20. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0, December.
    21. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    22. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521459556, September.
    23. Frenken, Koen & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2000. "Scaling trajectories in civil aircraft (1913-1997)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 331-348, March.
    24. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh & Albert Faber & Annemarth M. Idenburg & Frans H. Oosterhuis, 2007. "Evolutionary Economics and Environmental Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12511.
    25. Grubler, Arnulf & Nakicenovic, Nebojsa & Victor, David G., 1999. "Dynamics of energy technologies and global change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 247-280, May.
    26. Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau, 2010. "Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    27. Staffan Jacobsson & Anna Bergek, 2004. "Transforming the energy sector: the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 13(5), pages 815-849, October.
    28. Worrell, Ernst & Biermans, Gijs, 2005. "Move over! Stock turnover, retrofit and industrial energy efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 949-962, May.
    29. Gallagher, Kelly Sims, 2006. "Limits to leapfrogging in energy technologies? Evidence from the Chinese automobile industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 383-394, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wilson, Charlie, 2012. "Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 81-94.
    2. Handayani, Kamia & Krozer, Yoram & Filatova, Tatiana, 2019. "From fossil fuels to renewables: An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 134-146.
    3. F. Knobloch & J. -F. Mercure, 2016. "The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents," Papers 1603.06888, arXiv.org.
    4. Knobloch, Florian & Pollitt, Hector & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Lewney, Richard & Huijbregts, Mark A.J. & Mercure, Jean-Francois, 2021. "FTT:Heat — A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Millot, Ariane & Maïzi, Nadia, 2021. "From open-loop energy revolutions to closed-loop transition: What drives carbon neutrality?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Bento, Nuno & Fontes, Margarida, 2015. "The construction of a new technological innovation system in a follower country: Wind energy in Portugal," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 197-210.
    7. Elia, A. & Kamidelivand, M. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B., 2021. "Impacts of innovation on renewable energy technology cost reductions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Tamaryn Napp & Dan Bernie & Rebecca Thomas & Jason Lowe & Adam Hawkes & Ajay Gambhir, 2017. "Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-36, January.
    9. Åhman, Max & Skjærseth, Jon Birger & Eikeland, Per Ove, 2018. "Demonstrating climate mitigation technologies: An early assessment of the NER 300 programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 100-107.
    10. Grubler, Arnulf, 2012. "Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 8-16.
    11. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Wierling, August, 2016. "Offshore wind investments – Realism about cost developments is necessary," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 170-181.
    12. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wilson, Charlie, 2012. "Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 81-94.
    2. Harborne, Paul & Hendry, Chris, 2009. "Pathways to commercial wind power in the US, Europe and Japan: The role of demonstration projects and field trials in the innovation process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3580-3595, September.
    3. Stokes, Leah C., 2013. "The politics of renewable energy policies: The case of feed-in tariffs in Ontario, Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 490-500.
    4. Grubler, Arnulf, 2012. "Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 8-16.
    5. Polzin, Friedemann, 2017. "Mobilizing private finance for low-carbon innovation – A systematic review of barriers and solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 525-535.
    6. Stefan Ćetković & Aron Buzogány & Miranda Schreurs, 2016. "Varieties of clean energy transitions in Europe: Political-economic foundations of onshore and offshore wind development," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Negro, Simona O. & Alkemade, Floortje & Hekkert, Marko P., 2012. "Why does renewable energy diffuse so slowly? A review of innovation system problems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3836-3846.
    8. del Río, Pablo & Bleda, Mercedes, 2012. "Comparing the innovation effects of support schemes for renewable electricity technologies: A function of innovation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 272-282.
    9. Pearson, Peter J.G. & Foxon, Timothy J., 2012. "A low carbon industrial revolution? Insights and challenges from past technological and economic transformations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-127.
    10. Jin, Wei & Zhang, ZhongXiang, "undated". "Product Homogeneity, Knowledge Spillovers, and Innovation: Why Energy Sector is Perplexed by a Slow Pace of Technological Progress," Working Papers 249504, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    11. Johannes Urpelainen, 2013. "A model of dynamic climate governance: dream big, win small," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 107-125, May.
    12. Foxon, Timothy J., 2011. "A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2258-2267.
    13. Cherp, Aleh & Vinichenko, Vadim & Jewell, Jessica & Suzuki, Masahiro & Antal, Miklós, 2017. "Comparing electricity transitions: A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 612-628.
    14. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2017. "The tragedy of product homogeneity and knowledge non-spillovers: explaining the slow pace of energy technological progress," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 639-661, August.
    15. Johannes Urpelainen, 2012. "Technology investment, bargaining, and international environmental agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 145-163, May.
    16. Bossink, Bart, 2020. "Learning strategies in sustainable energy demonstration projects: What organizations learn from sustainable energy demonstrations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. C. Wilson & A. Grubler & N. Bauer & V. Krey & K. Riahi, 2013. "Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 381-395, May.
    18. Gross, Robert & Hanna, Richard & Gambhir, Ajay & Heptonstall, Philip & Speirs, Jamie, 2018. "How long does innovation and commercialisation in the energy sectors take? Historical case studies of the timescale from invention to widespread commercialisation in energy supply and end use technolo," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 682-699.
    19. Stefan Cetkovic & Aron Buzogány & Miranda Schreurs, 2016. "Varieties of clean energy transitions in Europe Political-economic foundations of onshore and offshore wind development," WIDER Working Paper Series 018, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Markard, Jochen & Raven, Rob & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-967.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:165-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.