IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/mgtdec/v42y2021i4p796-807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strategic introduction of a new product under uncertainty: A duopoly case

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Terrazas‐Santamaria

Abstract

We present a continuous‐game of two symmetric firms competing strategically to launch a new product, simultaneously or sequentially. In the timing game, where each firm decides when to launch, we consider the uncertainty of profits and that the launch is successful with a probability that can be less than one. We find that when the first‐mover advantage (FMA) is large, even with a low probability of success, one firm preempts the other deteriorating the leader's value function. The simultaneous investment dominates the sequential one when the FMA is small or when the probability is almost zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Terrazas‐Santamaria, 2021. "Strategic introduction of a new product under uncertainty: A duopoly case," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 796-807, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:42:y:2021:i:4:p:796-807
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.3273
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3273
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/mde.3273?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shackleton, Mark B. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E. & Wojakowski, Rafal, 2004. "Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 179-201, January.
    2. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    3. Irwin, Douglas A. & Pavcnik, Nina, 2004. "Airbus versus Boeing revisited: international competition in the aircraft market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 223-245, December.
    4. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    5. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    6. Yao-Wen Hsu & Bart Lambrecht, 2007. "Preemptive patenting under uncertainty and asymmetric information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 5-28, April.
    7. Carlson, Murray & Dockner, Engelbert J. & Fisher, Adlai & Giammarino, Ron, 2014. "Leaders, Followers, and Risk Dynamics in Industry Equilibrium," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 321-349, April.
    8. Vasiliki Makropoulou, 2011. "Decision tree analysis and real options: a reconciliation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 261-264, June.
    9. Boyer, Marcel & Lasserre, Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2012. "A dynamic duopoly investment game without commitment under uncertain market expansion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 663-681.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. Roger J. Calantone & Anthony Di Benedetto & Gaia Rubera, 2018. "Launch activities and timing in new product development," Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 33-41, January.
    12. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    13. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    14. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    15. Robert E. Baldwin, 1988. "Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald88-2.
    16. Wu, Cheng-Han & Lai, Jing-Yi, 2019. "Dynamic pricing and competitive time-to-market strategy of new product launch under a multistage duopoly," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 138-152.
    17. Ibsen, Alexander Z., 2009. "The politics of airplane production: The emergence of two technological frames in the competition between Boeing and Airbus," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 342-349.
    18. Andrea Gamba & Alberto Micalizzi, 2007. "Product Development and Market Expansion: A Real Options Model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(1), pages 91-112, March.
    19. Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Francesco Squintani, 2011. "Preemption Games with Private Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 667-692.
    20. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Disputes in the Commercial Aircraft Industry," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 733-751, May.
    21. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alcino Azevedo & Dean Paxson, 2018. "Rivalry and uncertainty in complementary investments with dynamic market sharing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 319-355, December.
    2. Arasteh, Abdollah, 2017. "Considering the investment decisions with real options games approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1282-1294.
    3. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Investment timing and vertical relationships," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-123.
    4. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Innovation and imitation incentives in dynamic duopoly," MPRA Paper 59453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    6. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    7. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    8. Bruno Versaevel, 2015. "Alertness, Leadership, and Nascent Market Dynamics," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 440-466, December.
    9. Ebina, Takeshi & Matsushima, Noriaki & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Demand uncertainty, product differentiation, and entry timing under spatial competition," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 286-297.
    10. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2021. "Strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    12. Jou, Jyh-Bang, 2018. "R&D investment and patent renewal decisions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 144-154.
    13. Goto, Makoto & Nishide, Katsumasa & Takashima, Ryuta, 2017. "Leaders, followers, and equity risk premiums in booms and busts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 207-220.
    14. Hans Haanappel & Han Smit, 2007. "Return distributions of strategic growth options," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 57-80, April.
    15. Colombo, Luca & Labrecciosa, Paola, 2021. "A stochastic differential game of duopolistic competition with sticky prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Kamoto, Shinsuke, 2023. "Investment decisions and financial leverage under a potential entry threat," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Shibata, Takashi, 2016. "Strategic entry in a triopoly market of firms with asymmetric cost structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 728-739.
    18. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    19. Milanesi, Gastón Silverio, 2023. "Valoración de estrategias competitivas, acuerdos colaborativos y penalizaciones con Opciones Reales Multinomiales y Teoría de Juegos [Valuation of competitive strategies, collaborative agreements a," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 35(1), pages 360-388, June.
    20. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2015. "On the timing of innovation and imitation," MPRA Paper 69161, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:42:y:2021:i:4:p:796-807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.