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Revolving versus Convenience Use of Credit Cards: Evidence from U.S. Credit Bureau Data

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  • SCOTT L. FULFORD
  • SCOTT SCHUH

Abstract

Credit card payments and revolving debt are important for consumer theory but a key data source—credit bureau records—does not distinguish between current charges and revolving debt. We develop a theory‐based econometric methodology using a hidden Markov model to estimate the likelihood a consumer is revolving debt each quarter. We validate our approach using a new survey linked to credit bureau data. We estimate that for likely revolvers: (i) 100% of an increase in credit becomes an increase in debt eventually; (ii) credit limit changes are half as salient as debt changes; and (iii) revolving status is persistent.

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  • Scott L. Fulford & Scott Schuh, 2023. "Revolving versus Convenience Use of Credit Cards: Evidence from U.S. Credit Bureau Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1667-1701, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:55:y:2023:i:7:p:1667-1701
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13023
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    Cited by:

    1. Christa N. Gibbs & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Donghoon Lee & Scott Nelson & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Jialan Wang, 2024. "Consumer Credit Reporting Data," Staff Reports 1114, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Dodini, Samuel & Larrimore, Jeff & Tranfaglia, Anna, 2024. "Financial repercussions of SNAP work requirements," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Scott L. Fulford & Joanna Stavins, 2024. "Income and the CARD Act’s Ability‐to‐Pay Rule in the US Credit Card Market," Working Papers 24-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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