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Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity

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  • Thore Schlaak
  • Malte Rieth
  • Maximilian Podstawski

Abstract

We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the structural shock of interest. We test alternative instruments and find that narrative and model-based measures are valid, while high-frequency data instruments show signs of invalidity. Finally, we document that monetary shocks identified with both a valid instrument and heteroskedasticity have larger effects on production and prices than monetary shocks identified via an instrument only.

Suggested Citation

  • Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2018. "Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1749, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1749
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    Cited by:

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    2. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2024. "Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2084, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Luca Eduardo Fierro & Mario Martinoli, 2024. "An Empirical Inquiry into the Distributional Consequences of Energy Price Shocks," LEM Papers Series 2024/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Marc Burri & Daniel Kaufmann, 2024. "Multi-dimensional monetary policy shocks based on heteroscedasticity," IRENE Working Papers 24-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Martin Bruns & Sascha A. Keweloh, 2023. "Testing for Strong Exogeneity in Proxy-VARS," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    7. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; structural vector autoregressions; identification with external instrument; heteroskedasticity; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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