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Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?

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  • Conghui Hu
  • Wei Xiong

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether commodity futures prices traded in the United States reveal information relevant to stock prices of East Asian economies including China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. We find significant and positive predictive powers of overnight futures returns of copper and soybeans, albeit not crude oil, for stock prices of all these East Asian economies and across a broad range of industries after mid-2000s. Our analysis establishes commodity futures prices as barometers of global economic strength in recent years, but leaves open a deeper issue regarding whether through this informational channel noise from futures market trading can feed back to the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Conghui Hu & Wei Xiong, 2013. "Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?," NBER Working Papers 19706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19706
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    Cited by:

    1. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
    2. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    3. Peilun He & Gareth W. Peters & Nino Kordzakhia & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2024. "Multi-Factor Function-on-Function Regression of Bond Yields on WTI Commodity Futures Term Structure Dynamics," Papers 2412.05889, arXiv.org.
    4. Hoover, Gary A. & Smimou, K., 2023. "Socially conscious investment funds and home country institutions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 395-417.
    5. Conghui Hu & Zhibing Li & Xiaoyu Liu, 2020. "Liquidity shocks, commodity financialization, and market comovements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1315-1336, September.
    6. Thobekile Qabhobho, 2023. "Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Local Realized Exchange Rate Volatility and Implied Volatilities in Energy Market on Exchange Rate Returns in BRICS," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 231-239, March.
    7. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    8. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Commodity futures returns and policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 364-383.
    9. Nikolaos T. Milonas & Evangelia K. Photina, 2024. "The convenience yield under commodity financialization," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 631-652, April.
    10. Brooks, Chris & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Miffre, Joëlle & Nneji, Ogonna, 2016. "Commodity risks and the cross-section of equity returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 134-150.
    11. Chenchen Li & Chongfeng Wu & Chunyang Zhou, 2021. "Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 46-71, January.
    12. Parminder KAUR & Ravi SINGLA, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Commodity Prices on Stock Returns of BRICS Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 145-164, March.
    13. Bosch, David & Smimou, K., 2022. "Traders’ motivation and hedging pressure in commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. Chris Brooks & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Joëlle Miffre & Ogonna Nneji, 2014. "Commodity Risk Factors and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    15. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2023. "Cross-spectral coherence and co-movement between WTI oil price and exchange rate of Thai Baht," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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