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Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk

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  • Yongmin Zhang
  • Shusheng Ding

Abstract

Commodity markets are a widely researched topic in the field of finance. In this paper, we investigate the co-movement of return and volatility measures in different commodity futures markets and how these measures are affected by liquidity risk. First, we find that commodity returns display co-movement and that liquidity risk plays a key role in shaping asset return patterns. Moreover, we show that the volatilities of commodity returns co-move, and we demonstrate the role of liquidity risk in this joint pattern. We also find that the commodity markets we investigated share a common volatility factor that determines their joint volatility co-movement. Because liquidity risk affects both commodity returns and volatility shocks, it might be interpreted as the common causal factor driving both measures simultaneously. Therefore, we affirm the view that liquidity shocks are firmly related to two residual risks originating from both market return and market volatility. Finally, we also show that liquidity spillovers can significantly drive cross-sectional correlation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding, 2018. "Return and volatility co-movement in commodity futures markets: the effects of liquidity risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1471-1486, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:9:p:1471-1486
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1444562
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng & Scheffel, Eric M., 2019. "A key determinant of commodity price Co-movement: The role of daily market liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 170-180.
    2. Ying Jiang & Neil Kellard & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1486-1507, October.
    3. Gaoxiu Qiao & Yangli Cao & Feng Ma & Weiping Li, 2023. "Liquidity and realized covariance forecasting: a hybrid method with model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 437-463, January.
    4. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
    5. Fan, Zaifeng & Jump, Jeff & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Linda, 2023. "Volatility in US dairy futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Thomas A. P. de Boer & Cornelis Gardebroek & Joost M. E. Pennings & Andres Trujillo‐Barrera, 2022. "Intraday liquidity in soybean complex futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1189-1211, July.
    7. Ding, Shusheng & Zhang, Yongmin, 2020. "Cross market predictions for commodity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 455-462.
    8. Miao Li & Tao Xiong & Ziran Li, 2023. "A tale of two contracts: Examining the behavior of bid–ask spreads of corn futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 792-806, June.
    9. Luiz Augusto Magalhães & Thiago Christiano Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2022. "Hedging commodities in times of distress: The case of COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1941-1959, October.
    10. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Meryem Duygun, 2019. "Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1471-1485, November.

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