IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v88y2023ics1057521923002260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Did U.S. and Chinese investors respond differently to the exogenous shocks from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine?

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yongmin
  • Sun, Yiru

Abstract

This paper investigates the U.S. and Chinese stock markets' long-run responses to COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war, the main shocks that have recently battered the globalized economy. The investigation uses both static data analysis and ARMA-GARCH and DCC-GARCH dynamic risk models incorporating both events' impacts. Model fitting reveals opposite reactions of the two stock markets' long-run volatilities to the pandemic, but both volatilities have been enhanced by the war, with a much stronger reaction from the U.S. than from the Chinese market. Furthermore, the war has reduced the linkage between the two markets, while the pandemic has had no significant effect. The different responses of U.S. and Chinese investors may be attributed to the two countries' very different virus containment strategies, pandemic severities, and policy approaches to the geopolitical conflict. Our results have important practical implications for regulators' risk mitigation policy design and investors' cross-market hedging strategy development.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yongmin & Sun, Yiru, 2023. "Did U.S. and Chinese investors respond differently to the exogenous shocks from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923002260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923002260
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102710?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Volatility spillovers among Northeast Asia and the US: Evidence from the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 179-193.
    4. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
    5. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Eric Scheffel, 2018. "Policy impact on volatility dynamics in commodity futures markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1227-1245, October.
    6. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Zhang, Yongmin, 2022. "Futures volatility forecasting based on big data analytics with incorporating an order imbalance effect," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Ding, Shusheng & Zhang, Yongmin, 2020. "Cross market predictions for commodity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 455-462.
    10. Zhang, Yongmin & Wang, Ruizhi, 2022. "COVID-19 impact on commodity futures volatilities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    11. Zhang, Wenting & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Wang, Teng-Kun & Li, Weny, 2019. "Dynamical Volatility and Correlation among US Stock and Treasury Bond Cash and Futures Markets in Presence of Financial Crisis: A Copula Approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 381-396.
    13. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2021. "COVID-19 and the United States financial markets’ volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    14. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    15. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng, 2021. "Liquidity effects on price and return co-movements in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Izani Ibrahim & Kamilah Kamaludin & Sheela Sundarasen, 2020. "COVID-19, Government Response, and Market Volatility: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific Developed and Developing Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, November.
    17. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng & Scheffel, Eric M., 2019. "A key determinant of commodity price Co-movement: The role of daily market liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 170-180.
    18. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from gold and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    19. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Meryem Duygun, 2019. "Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1471-1485, November.
    20. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Zhang, Yongmin, 2020. "Incorporating the RMB internationalization effect into its exchange rate volatility forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    21. Wang, Ziwei & Li, Youwei & He, Feng, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    22. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    23. Karamti, Chiraz & Belhassine, Olfa, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic waves and global financial markets: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    24. Pan, Qunxing & Mei, Xiaowen & Gao, Tianqing, 2022. "Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    25. Hasan, Iftekhar & Marra, Miriam & To, Thomas Y. & Wu, Eliza & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2023. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Corporate CDS Spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    26. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2020. "Herding behaviour in energy stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis, SARS, and ongoing COVID-19," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    27. Susan Hannah Allen, 2022. "The uncertain impact of sanctions on Russia," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 761-762, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chancharat, Surachai & Sinlapates, Parichat, 2023. "Dependences and dynamic spillovers across the crude oil and stock markets throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict: Evidence from the ASEAN+6," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongmin Zhang & Yiru Sun & Haili Shi & Shusheng Ding & Yingxue Zhao, 2024. "COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war and the connectedness between the U.S. and Chinese agricultural futures markets," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    3. Yongmin Zhang & Shusheng Ding & Haili Shi, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on the interdependence between US and Chinese oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2041-2052, November.
    4. Yousfi, Mohamed & Farhani, Ramzi & Bouzgarrou, Houssam, 2024. "From the pandemic to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Dynamic behavior of connectedness between financial markets and implications for portfolio management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1178-1197.
    5. Papadamou, Stephanos & Fassas, Athanasios P. & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2023. "Effects of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on implied stock market volatility: International evidence using a google trend measure," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. JEBABLI, Ikram & KOUAISSAH, Noureddine & AROURI, Mohamed, 2022. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Energy Markets during Crises: A Comparative Assessment between the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    7. Omane-Adjepong, Maurice & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2021. "Exploration of safe havens for Africa's stock markets: A test case under COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. Yousaf, Imran & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Alshater, Muneer M. & Bouri, Elie & Li, Yanshuang, 2023. "Multidimensional connectedness among the volatility of global financial markets around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2023. "Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on the asymmetric influence of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1433-1470, August.
    10. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and contagion between energy sector and financial assets during COVID-19 crisis period," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 449-467, September.
    11. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Yi, Shangkun & Zhang, Weiping, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccinations and risk spillovers: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Bakry, Walid & Kavalmthara, Peter John & Saverimuttu, Vivienne & Liu, Yiyang & Cyril, Sajan, 2022. "Response of stock market volatility to COVID-19 announcements and stringency measures: A comparison of developed and emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    13. Siemaszkiewicz Karolina, 2021. "Safe Haven Instruments – A Comparison Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 25(4), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Richard Barichello, 2023. "The shock of war: do trade relations impact the reaction of stock markets to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 14-27.
    15. Liu, Min, 2022. "The driving forces of green bond market volatility and the response of the market to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 288-309.
    16. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2024. "How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    17. Managi, Shunsuke & Yousfi, Mohamed & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Mabrouk, Nejah & Ben Lahouel, Béchir, 2022. "Oil price, US stock market and the US business conditions in the era of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 129-139.
    18. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Aharon, David Y. & Baig, Ahmed S. & DeLisle, R. Jared, 2022. "The impact of government interventions on cross-listed securities: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    20. Nammouri, Hela & Chlibi, Souhir & Labidi, Oussama, 2022. "Co-movements in sector price indexes during the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923002260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.